I am sure a lot of people are expecting Florida to remain the top team after a win against Tennessee. That is usually how polls work. But the No. 2 Gators did not exactly dominate the Volunteers last week at Florida Field.
The great thing I love about the way my rankings work is that winning is a necessity, but winning in a dominating fashion is even more of a necessity. This does not mean schedule weak, as Florida is learning in its short tumble. But no team can have an off week, like Tim Tebow and the Gators had last week, and expect to hold onto their position.
Instead the most consistent teams who play the tougher schedules rise to the top. This week that top team is No. 1 Alabama.
I have been waiting for the Crimson Tide to get to the top spot after being ranked No. 4 last week. I absolutely love this team -- see my thoughts from Week 1 in their thrashing of the No. 18 Hokies in Atlanta. They play defense and run the ball well. They are, to my eye, the best team in the country right now. Clearly Florida and No. 5 Texas are riding the laurels of last season's success.
There are certainly going to be some surprises in this week's rankings -- as No. 4 Oklahoma has leap-frogged up the polls despite losing a game, something that I would consider more of a mathematical fluke than anything else -- but I would expect things to settle as the week moves on.
Here is this week's top 15:
1. Alabama 53.279
2. Florida +0.8
3. California +14.83
4. Oklahoma +15.719
5. Texas +21.004
6. USC
7. Mississippi (stats recorded before Thursday night's loss)
8. Kansas
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. TCU
14. Auburn
15. Missouri
The rest of the Top 25: 16. North Carolina; 17. Ohio State; 18. Virginia Tech; 19. Nebraska; 20. Florida State; 21. Boise State; 22. Michigan; 23. Brigham Young; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia
Top Offense: No. 2 Florida, Texas A&M (ranked 29th in standings)
Top Defense: No. 10 Penn State
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 12 Miami
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 Oklahoma
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 8 Kansas
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 21 Boise State
Game of the Week: 12 Miami (Fl.) vs. 18 Virginia Tech- the Hurricanes ridiculous start continues as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies. The history of this rivalry in the 2000s is well documented as Virginia Tech nearly ruined a couple Miami national championship runs. It is pretty safe to say that this game is very much in the same vein the way the Hurricanes are playing (at least until Miami hosts Oklahoma next week). This should be a very good game and could very well decide which team takes control of the ACC this year. The Hokies and Hurricanes do not rank fantastically in either offense or defense in the ratings, but we all know they have a solid defense. This game will come down to the quarterbacks and who can execute. The scary part is, both have proven they can perform under pressure in big games this season.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Thoughts From Week 3 2009
No. 20 Georgia Tech vs. Miami (Fl.): Tyrone Nesbitt's drop back really bothers me and it is going to hurt this team, if it did not already in this game, Nesbitt is right-handed but he drops back left-handed and turns to throw, he has a powerful arm, but this is a concerning hitch for the Yellow Jackets... because Georgia Tech is so dependent on the triple option, the team cannot fall behind like it did tonight, the passing game is just not up to snuff... the Hurricanes are athletic and the pass defense definitely improved from the game against the Seminoles... Jacory Harris had his doubters entering the season, I think he silenced them... the Hurricanes gauntlet start does not let up as the Sooners travel to Land Shark Stadium next week and the Hokies after that, woo-hoo.
No. 6 California at Minnesota: the Golden Bears are making quite a lot of mistakes that have given the Gophers a chance at this thing from fumbles to muffed punts to silly penalties... the defense is struggling to contain the tandem of Adam Weber and Erick Decker, but they are very physical nonetheless... Jahvid Best is also quite physical and also quite good... I have to ask this, if Cal is having so much problems containing just one good wide receiver -- and granted Decker is one of the top receivers in the nation -- what are they going to do with the multiple weapons that a team like USC or Oregon has?
Tennessee vs. No. 1 Florida: there was a reason the Volunteers were ranked No. 8 last week, they have a really athletic defense and it is getting a good push on the Gators' offensive line, that has really disrupted everything they have wanted to do... disrupting Florida even more, Tennessee's strong running game, I definitely did not see that coming as the offensive line is pushing around Florida's defense... but having said all that, Tennessee needs to quit being afraid of what Jonathan Crompton can do it held the team back against UCLA and it is holding the team back in the Swamp... Florida needs to find a way to get their receivers involved, because they are not going to do it themselves, that is the one weakness for the Gators and the Volunteers did a good job forcing Tebow to make plays to them most of the day... having said that, the backs for the Gators are about as good as they come, so fast... and Tim Tebow had a Heisman play on a 3rd and 4 in the third quarter with the game still tight, I was yelling for him to throw the ball away and he somehow got a first down.
No. 6 California at Minnesota: the Golden Bears are making quite a lot of mistakes that have given the Gophers a chance at this thing from fumbles to muffed punts to silly penalties... the defense is struggling to contain the tandem of Adam Weber and Erick Decker, but they are very physical nonetheless... Jahvid Best is also quite physical and also quite good... I have to ask this, if Cal is having so much problems containing just one good wide receiver -- and granted Decker is one of the top receivers in the nation -- what are they going to do with the multiple weapons that a team like USC or Oregon has?
Tennessee vs. No. 1 Florida: there was a reason the Volunteers were ranked No. 8 last week, they have a really athletic defense and it is getting a good push on the Gators' offensive line, that has really disrupted everything they have wanted to do... disrupting Florida even more, Tennessee's strong running game, I definitely did not see that coming as the offensive line is pushing around Florida's defense... but having said all that, Tennessee needs to quit being afraid of what Jonathan Crompton can do it held the team back against UCLA and it is holding the team back in the Swamp... Florida needs to find a way to get their receivers involved, because they are not going to do it themselves, that is the one weakness for the Gators and the Volunteers did a good job forcing Tebow to make plays to them most of the day... having said that, the backs for the Gators are about as good as they come, so fast... and Tim Tebow had a Heisman play on a 3rd and 4 in the third quarter with the game still tight, I was yelling for him to throw the ball away and he somehow got a first down.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Inside the Numbers: Party Crashers
Every ranking system has those few teams that sit way too high and readers scratch their heads and say, "What is this team doing there?" Believe me, when I looked at this week's top 25 I thought, "Arkansas? Texas A&M? They cannot be that good."
Especially since no one else thinks the No. 16 Razorbacks or the No. 25 Aggies are that good, let alone No. 15 Auburn. So how did these teams climb so much?
Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn are ranked very low or not at all by the two main human polls. The Aggies were left completely out of the AP and the Coach's Poll. That is a pretty bad start out of the gate.
The three teams also do not rank highly in the next two human polls I use. The Aggies are No. 68 in the CBS Sportsline 120, the Razorbacks are No. 51, and the Tigers No. 41. That seems to set them even further back. Auburn gets a nice bump from College Football News' No. 11 ranking, but that is more of an outlier than an actual boost. The other two teams are still not quite strong in the poll category.
The most variable component in the polls is the use of the Computer Rankings used in the BCS. These rankings, like mine are largely dependent on game statistics and complicated strength of schedule formulas. Much more complicated than mine for sure.
Thus, these are not as reliable, but still a good buoy this early in the season.
But none of these three teams performs well in the computer polls. Arkansas' poll average is around 45, Auburn 34 and Texas A&M 53. These three teams started very far behind.
So turn to the offense and defense ratings.
Offense is where the teams really make up ground. All three hover around 10 with Texas A&M having an outstanding 8.964 rating.
Remember the offense and defense ratings are found by averaging the rankings against other teams in the standings in three key statistics.
The Aggies have a 5.208 rating for their pass offense, which means, in essence, they have the fifth best passing attack among other ranked teams. They are about ninth in running and 12th in scoring. Their defense is not shabby either coming in at 14.732.
Again, who have they played? Not anybody special. And the Aggies continue not to play anybody special with a strength of schedule hovering around 40. One loss from the Aggies or one bad game will cause them to drop.
Arkansas also has a strong offense matched with a strong defense. As does Auburn.
It shows you one thing about these rankings. It is not about having the best passing attack or the best rush defense. It is about having a high average on offense and defense. The Tigers, Razorbacks and Aggies proved that this week.
Especially since no one else thinks the No. 16 Razorbacks or the No. 25 Aggies are that good, let alone No. 15 Auburn. So how did these teams climb so much?
Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn are ranked very low or not at all by the two main human polls. The Aggies were left completely out of the AP and the Coach's Poll. That is a pretty bad start out of the gate.
The three teams also do not rank highly in the next two human polls I use. The Aggies are No. 68 in the CBS Sportsline 120, the Razorbacks are No. 51, and the Tigers No. 41. That seems to set them even further back. Auburn gets a nice bump from College Football News' No. 11 ranking, but that is more of an outlier than an actual boost. The other two teams are still not quite strong in the poll category.
The most variable component in the polls is the use of the Computer Rankings used in the BCS. These rankings, like mine are largely dependent on game statistics and complicated strength of schedule formulas. Much more complicated than mine for sure.
Thus, these are not as reliable, but still a good buoy this early in the season.
But none of these three teams performs well in the computer polls. Arkansas' poll average is around 45, Auburn 34 and Texas A&M 53. These three teams started very far behind.
So turn to the offense and defense ratings.
Offense is where the teams really make up ground. All three hover around 10 with Texas A&M having an outstanding 8.964 rating.
Remember the offense and defense ratings are found by averaging the rankings against other teams in the standings in three key statistics.
The Aggies have a 5.208 rating for their pass offense, which means, in essence, they have the fifth best passing attack among other ranked teams. They are about ninth in running and 12th in scoring. Their defense is not shabby either coming in at 14.732.
Again, who have they played? Not anybody special. And the Aggies continue not to play anybody special with a strength of schedule hovering around 40. One loss from the Aggies or one bad game will cause them to drop.
Arkansas also has a strong offense matched with a strong defense. As does Auburn.
It shows you one thing about these rankings. It is not about having the best passing attack or the best rush defense. It is about having a high average on offense and defense. The Tigers, Razorbacks and Aggies proved that this week.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Inside the Numbers: Losses Hurt
Losses hurt. Especially in college football. You hear it at the beginning of every season about how important it is to go undefeated and control your own destiny. It seems that every year, one team has a gripe with the BCS for that one tiny little loss.
Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.
Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.
How could this happen?
Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.
But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.
And they especially hurt this week.
In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.
No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.
To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.
But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.
Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.
Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.
Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.
How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.
But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.
The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.
Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.
Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.
Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.
How could this happen?
Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.
But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.
And they especially hurt this week.
In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.
No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.
To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.
But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.
Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.
Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.
Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.
How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.
But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.
The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.
Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.
2009 Week 3 Rankings: Another New No. 1
The ranking are a little tumultuous this early in the season. One bad game can really affect the statistics. Do not worry this will change as teams get deeper into the season. They are not meant to be really taken seriously until much further into the season.
But we are getting to the point where we can see some trends about who is going to stay near the top throughout the season and who really is not as good as we thought.
The first big news is Florida has taken over the No. 1 spot. I have found in previous years that big games, even when they win, tend to hurt teams more than help in the short-term. They help in the long-term though as no one has really gotten any quality wins yet. No. 3 Brigham Young became the first team to pick up a quality win point as Oklahoma rose back into the rankings. The Cougars used that quality win to overcome the weak Mountain West schedule.
No. 11 Oklahoma also bounced back after the loss and is firmly planting itself among the top teams -- even with the loss. Otherwise the favorites are still at the top during the last week before I can say the rankings are official and some of the artificial weighting I use at the beginning of the season -- i.e. the use of more polls in the poll component -- is taken away.
The real surprises this week? Let's go with No. 7 Cincinnati and No. 8 Kansas who both jumped up from the main polls. The Bearcats feature a strong offense that has them flying high and the Jayhawks also have a single-digit offense and a pretty good defense. Those will be two teams to watch.
Two teams that are overrated? No. 17 LSU is still struggling after a bad game in Seattle in Week One. The Tigers' typically strong defense received an abysmal 31 rating. That will need to improve if they are to fight for the SEC West title. Also No. 20 Georgia Tech is rated low. That seemed to be prophetic as they lost tonight at Miami. The Hurricanes remain unranked, but that will change next week I would bet.
Here are this week's rankings:
1. Florida 60.115
2. USC +5.207
3. Brigham Young +11.172
4. Alabama +13.334
5. Texas +14.494
6. California
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas
9. Penn State
10. Nebraska
11. Oklahoma
12. Mississippi
13. Boise State
14. TCU
15. Auburn
The rest of the top 25: 16. Arkansas; 17. LSU; 18. Utah; 19. North Carolina; 20. Georgia Tech; 21. Boston College; 22. West Virginia; 23. Missouri; 24. Oregon State; 25. Texas A&M
Top Offense: No. 1 Florida
Top Defense: No. 13 Boise State
Toughest Schedule: No. 11 Oklahoma, Georgia (ranked 37th in standings)
Easiest Schedule: No. 13 Boise State
Game of the Week: No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 24 Oregon State- this could be an interesting game with two contrasting styles of play. The Bearcats are the type of team that can roll you over with their passing and offensive ability. The Beavers proved last year against the Trojans just what a great running back can do. Oregon State has not played great so far this season, but they are certainly capable of it especially at home. This will be a big test for the Bearcats as I think they don't want to just be in the BCS conversation as the Big East's representative. A win against a pretty good Pac-10 team might make them clamor for more.
But we are getting to the point where we can see some trends about who is going to stay near the top throughout the season and who really is not as good as we thought.
The first big news is Florida has taken over the No. 1 spot. I have found in previous years that big games, even when they win, tend to hurt teams more than help in the short-term. They help in the long-term though as no one has really gotten any quality wins yet. No. 3 Brigham Young became the first team to pick up a quality win point as Oklahoma rose back into the rankings. The Cougars used that quality win to overcome the weak Mountain West schedule.
No. 11 Oklahoma also bounced back after the loss and is firmly planting itself among the top teams -- even with the loss. Otherwise the favorites are still at the top during the last week before I can say the rankings are official and some of the artificial weighting I use at the beginning of the season -- i.e. the use of more polls in the poll component -- is taken away.
The real surprises this week? Let's go with No. 7 Cincinnati and No. 8 Kansas who both jumped up from the main polls. The Bearcats feature a strong offense that has them flying high and the Jayhawks also have a single-digit offense and a pretty good defense. Those will be two teams to watch.
Two teams that are overrated? No. 17 LSU is still struggling after a bad game in Seattle in Week One. The Tigers' typically strong defense received an abysmal 31 rating. That will need to improve if they are to fight for the SEC West title. Also No. 20 Georgia Tech is rated low. That seemed to be prophetic as they lost tonight at Miami. The Hurricanes remain unranked, but that will change next week I would bet.
Here are this week's rankings:
1. Florida 60.115
2. USC +5.207
3. Brigham Young +11.172
4. Alabama +13.334
5. Texas +14.494
6. California
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas
9. Penn State
10. Nebraska
11. Oklahoma
12. Mississippi
13. Boise State
14. TCU
15. Auburn
The rest of the top 25: 16. Arkansas; 17. LSU; 18. Utah; 19. North Carolina; 20. Georgia Tech; 21. Boston College; 22. West Virginia; 23. Missouri; 24. Oregon State; 25. Texas A&M
Top Offense: No. 1 Florida
Top Defense: No. 13 Boise State
Toughest Schedule: No. 11 Oklahoma, Georgia (ranked 37th in standings)
Easiest Schedule: No. 13 Boise State
Game of the Week: No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 24 Oregon State- this could be an interesting game with two contrasting styles of play. The Bearcats are the type of team that can roll you over with their passing and offensive ability. The Beavers proved last year against the Trojans just what a great running back can do. Oregon State has not played great so far this season, but they are certainly capable of it especially at home. This will be a big test for the Bearcats as I think they don't want to just be in the BCS conversation as the Big East's representative. A win against a pretty good Pac-10 team might make them clamor for more.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Thoughts From Week 2 2009
Troy vs. No. 2 Florida: the first quarter was some very concerning football from Florida, cutesy football does not work at the start and the Gators looked a little unprepared for what the Trojans threw at them and it definitely led to some poor football... sorry, I am just not a fan of the option, it certainly has its place but it is not the primary weapon of a top-level team... all those penalties are going to catch up with Florida at some point, team needed a little discipline... but even after all the struggles, the Gators responded and just poured it on Troy, after the adjustment it was clear the two teams were in different leagues... Tim Tebow's throwing motion looks much crisper but it still kept all its power, watch the touchdown throw to Riley Cooper and Brandon James and compare it to some of his earlier throws, he is a much more pro-ready quarterback... Chris Rainey is fast.
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. Michigan: both teams made some tremendous plays in this great finish... very impressed by freshman quarterback Tate Forcier he stepped up in a big situation in a very big game that his coach needed... this was one of those games between two pretty evenly matched teams that came down to the last possession and it was just tough luck for Notre Dame... having said that, neither team was fantastic, a lot of those plays at the end apparently were happening throughout... the Wolverines are going to be pretty good once Rich Rodriguez can build up that talent.
UCLA vs. No. 7 Tennessee: this is an example of what one good statistical week can do, I do not think the Volunteers are the seventh best team in the league but a statistical anomaly can really skew these rankings, don't wory they will get better as the year goes on... the Bruins stepped up and won this game.
No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State: this started to look like last year's game with that interception on the first play but credit Terelle Pryor for rallying the troops early and making this a game... do not underestimate how important it was that the game was 7-7 at the end of one quarter, it set the tone for the competitiveness this game had... the Trojans look kind of young, quarterback Matt Barkley has looked a little rattled at times and the Trojans were out of timeouts midway through the second quarter... like Florida, USC has some good running backs, more between the tackles than the Gators and not as fast, but just as good... Tyrelle Pryor has running quarterback's sydrome, he thinks he can make any play with his legs and often extends it well with his scrambling ability, but he could also be getting hit deep behind the line of scrimmage for a big loss, USC's defense is fast, but it is young and Pryor is getting away with it... it sounds obvious, but Barkley was a lot more efficient with time, that is even more obvious considering Ohio State was coming at him with pressure all night, but the freshman stepped up with the Trojans needing a good drive in the fourth quarter... having said that, ESPN's description of Barkley being USC's savior? Yeah right, Joe McKnight won this game for the Trojans with his running at the end of the game... Ohio State learned tonight that touchdowns are better than field goals, they won this game in the second half until USC's final drive... Pryor looked like the freshman tonight as he was throwing off his back foot at the end and succumbing to the USC pressure, just a bad performance from the experienced leader.
South Carolina vs. Georgia: Georgia escaped here and makes you wonder what is up with the SEC this year, it definitely is not what it usually is... the Gamecocks could have had a cahnce to win this game, sometimes you just have to duck your head and take on a linebacker Tim Tebow style, the quarterbacks willing to do that are the winners.
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. Michigan: both teams made some tremendous plays in this great finish... very impressed by freshman quarterback Tate Forcier he stepped up in a big situation in a very big game that his coach needed... this was one of those games between two pretty evenly matched teams that came down to the last possession and it was just tough luck for Notre Dame... having said that, neither team was fantastic, a lot of those plays at the end apparently were happening throughout... the Wolverines are going to be pretty good once Rich Rodriguez can build up that talent.
UCLA vs. No. 7 Tennessee: this is an example of what one good statistical week can do, I do not think the Volunteers are the seventh best team in the league but a statistical anomaly can really skew these rankings, don't wory they will get better as the year goes on... the Bruins stepped up and won this game.
No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State: this started to look like last year's game with that interception on the first play but credit Terelle Pryor for rallying the troops early and making this a game... do not underestimate how important it was that the game was 7-7 at the end of one quarter, it set the tone for the competitiveness this game had... the Trojans look kind of young, quarterback Matt Barkley has looked a little rattled at times and the Trojans were out of timeouts midway through the second quarter... like Florida, USC has some good running backs, more between the tackles than the Gators and not as fast, but just as good... Tyrelle Pryor has running quarterback's sydrome, he thinks he can make any play with his legs and often extends it well with his scrambling ability, but he could also be getting hit deep behind the line of scrimmage for a big loss, USC's defense is fast, but it is young and Pryor is getting away with it... it sounds obvious, but Barkley was a lot more efficient with time, that is even more obvious considering Ohio State was coming at him with pressure all night, but the freshman stepped up with the Trojans needing a good drive in the fourth quarter... having said that, ESPN's description of Barkley being USC's savior? Yeah right, Joe McKnight won this game for the Trojans with his running at the end of the game... Ohio State learned tonight that touchdowns are better than field goals, they won this game in the second half until USC's final drive... Pryor looked like the freshman tonight as he was throwing off his back foot at the end and succumbing to the USC pressure, just a bad performance from the experienced leader.
South Carolina vs. Georgia: Georgia escaped here and makes you wonder what is up with the SEC this year, it definitely is not what it usually is... the Gamecocks could have had a cahnce to win this game, sometimes you just have to duck your head and take on a linebacker Tim Tebow style, the quarterbacks willing to do that are the winners.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
2009 Week 2 Rankings: Losses Hurt
Like last week's rankings, do not put too much stock into this week's rankings. There simply is not enough data to put together a complete ranking. In fact, I would hardly call this week's standings official. I do not like to call it official until every team included has played two games.
This week presented some problems as TCU did not even play. So it will be at least another two weeks before you can call these standings "official."
The Strength of schedule component is a little better and more complete, but obviously not there. And quality wins will not be apparent as teams that lost in the first week tended to drop.
Take last week's No. 1. Oklahoma lost to Brigham Young and dropped like a rock. Or take Tennessee who rose to No. 7 thanks to nearly 700 yards of total offense. A good game like that can really help a team rocket up the standings this early in the season. Thus, the warning.
Now that you have been fairly warned, here are the rankings for Week 2:
1. USC 44.632
2. Florida +17.327
3. Texas +28.647
4. Alabama +29.250
5. Penn State +34.468
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Kansas
9. Oklahoma State
10. Notre Dame
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Mississippi
14. Georgia Tech
15. Cincinnati
The rest of the top 25: 16. Oregon State; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Ohio State; 19. Utah; 20. Brigham Young; 21. Missouri; 22. Boston College; 23. Auburn; 24. Arkansas; 25. LSU
Top Offense: No. 7 Tennessee
Top Defense: No. 1 USC
Toughest Schedule: Georgia, ranked 32nd in standings
Easiest Schedule: Boise State, ranked 27th in standings and ranked eighth before adding schedule component
Game of the Week: No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State -- as a Big Ten fan, this game means a lot. The Buckeyes host the program that seems to be their entire conference's bane and a win would go a long way to improving the entire conference's image. Believe it or not, if Ohio State can even compete in this game it could lead to a big rise in the traditional polls (and a definite uptick here once stats and polls become official). The Trojans have a great defense again, but a lot of youth. Ohio State is the more experienced team. If the Buckeyes are going to get their win, they will do it now.
This week presented some problems as TCU did not even play. So it will be at least another two weeks before you can call these standings "official."
The Strength of schedule component is a little better and more complete, but obviously not there. And quality wins will not be apparent as teams that lost in the first week tended to drop.
Take last week's No. 1. Oklahoma lost to Brigham Young and dropped like a rock. Or take Tennessee who rose to No. 7 thanks to nearly 700 yards of total offense. A good game like that can really help a team rocket up the standings this early in the season. Thus, the warning.
Now that you have been fairly warned, here are the rankings for Week 2:
1. USC 44.632
2. Florida +17.327
3. Texas +28.647
4. Alabama +29.250
5. Penn State +34.468
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Kansas
9. Oklahoma State
10. Notre Dame
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Mississippi
14. Georgia Tech
15. Cincinnati
The rest of the top 25: 16. Oregon State; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Ohio State; 19. Utah; 20. Brigham Young; 21. Missouri; 22. Boston College; 23. Auburn; 24. Arkansas; 25. LSU
Top Offense: No. 7 Tennessee
Top Defense: No. 1 USC
Toughest Schedule: Georgia, ranked 32nd in standings
Easiest Schedule: Boise State, ranked 27th in standings and ranked eighth before adding schedule component
Game of the Week: No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State -- as a Big Ten fan, this game means a lot. The Buckeyes host the program that seems to be their entire conference's bane and a win would go a long way to improving the entire conference's image. Believe it or not, if Ohio State can even compete in this game it could lead to a big rise in the traditional polls (and a definite uptick here once stats and polls become official). The Trojans have a great defense again, but a lot of youth. Ohio State is the more experienced team. If the Buckeyes are going to get their win, they will do it now.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Thoughts From Week 1 2009
No. 10 Oregon vs. Boise State: Oregon and Boise State are known for their big offenses and ESPN loved advertising it as an offensive matchup, but the defenses are not bad and will be the key to success for either team this season... the Broncos don't usually play a strong enough schedule to make it to the BCS without going undefeated, but there are some decent teams on the schedule this year... Broncos are proving in the first half how important special teams are, this should be 6-0 midway through the second quarter, that changes the game... the struggles of Boise State and Oregon on offense in the first half of this game shows why teams need a preseason game in college football, a big game like this should not be decided by such raw, untested schemes and just one game would help; it proves why playing FCS teams actually help despite the image hit.
No. 23 Brigham Young Cougars vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Sam Bradford really makes this team, you can tell Oklahoma is a different team without its Heisman-winning quarterback, I know you can say that about most teams but the Sooners are clearly not as efficient... you have to feel bad for Oklahoma at some point, the team lost DeMarco Murray for the BCS National Championship Game last year, lost Jermaine Grisham before the BYU game and might be without Bradford for 2-4 weeks... having said all that, BYU is a really good team and should not be overlooked, the Cougars had a good season last year and are just as good with Max Hall coming back at quarterback... as much of a statement as the Broncos made against the Ducks, the Cougars have a better chance of not only making a BCS bowl but they might have a fair shake at making the BCS National Championship Game if the pieces fall right, this win will go a long way but they will hav eto go undefeated.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: this game certainly lived up to its hype as the Hokies and Crimson Tide played in a classic battle... but Alabama's defense was as good as advertised, it gave up a couple big plays at the end and a kickoff return but really stymied the Virginia Tech offense all night, the Hokies are the best team in the ACC and even in a somewhat dominating defeat, still looked like they should handle the conference easily... but the Tide just dominated the Hokies physically, the o-line and d-line were getting all the push they wanted up front and that's a recipe for success as both of them are very strong... I was most impressed with running back Mark Ingram, the dude is built like a tank and his 150-plus yard performance may be a statistical high for the year, but he will be wearing out defenses for a long time to come this year, it won't be the last time the Tide steamroll an opponent in the fourth quarter
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: the Bearcats just looked like they were in a different league than the Scarlet Knights, a completely unexpected mismatch... not to say Rutgers will not be fine, Cincinnati is a very good team... very impressed by Tony Pike, he picked Rutgers' defense apart all day
Miami (Fl.) vs. No. 14 Florida State: never thought I would see both of these teams get out to the offensive start they did Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris had free reign in the pocket despite some big hits early... this turned out to be one of those classic rivalry games but with a different M-O, I was surprised at how the secondaries got abused in this one, I thought Miami and FSU were great defenses... young quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris did more than enough to win this game for their team and they both have very bright futures this year... FSU and Miami will be determining a good portion of this season with BYU hosting FSU and Oklahoma heading to South Florida, they both will be up to the challenge
No. 23 Brigham Young Cougars vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Sam Bradford really makes this team, you can tell Oklahoma is a different team without its Heisman-winning quarterback, I know you can say that about most teams but the Sooners are clearly not as efficient... you have to feel bad for Oklahoma at some point, the team lost DeMarco Murray for the BCS National Championship Game last year, lost Jermaine Grisham before the BYU game and might be without Bradford for 2-4 weeks... having said all that, BYU is a really good team and should not be overlooked, the Cougars had a good season last year and are just as good with Max Hall coming back at quarterback... as much of a statement as the Broncos made against the Ducks, the Cougars have a better chance of not only making a BCS bowl but they might have a fair shake at making the BCS National Championship Game if the pieces fall right, this win will go a long way but they will hav eto go undefeated.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: this game certainly lived up to its hype as the Hokies and Crimson Tide played in a classic battle... but Alabama's defense was as good as advertised, it gave up a couple big plays at the end and a kickoff return but really stymied the Virginia Tech offense all night, the Hokies are the best team in the ACC and even in a somewhat dominating defeat, still looked like they should handle the conference easily... but the Tide just dominated the Hokies physically, the o-line and d-line were getting all the push they wanted up front and that's a recipe for success as both of them are very strong... I was most impressed with running back Mark Ingram, the dude is built like a tank and his 150-plus yard performance may be a statistical high for the year, but he will be wearing out defenses for a long time to come this year, it won't be the last time the Tide steamroll an opponent in the fourth quarter
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: the Bearcats just looked like they were in a different league than the Scarlet Knights, a completely unexpected mismatch... not to say Rutgers will not be fine, Cincinnati is a very good team... very impressed by Tony Pike, he picked Rutgers' defense apart all day
Miami (Fl.) vs. No. 14 Florida State: never thought I would see both of these teams get out to the offensive start they did Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris had free reign in the pocket despite some big hits early... this turned out to be one of those classic rivalry games but with a different M-O, I was surprised at how the secondaries got abused in this one, I thought Miami and FSU were great defenses... young quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris did more than enough to win this game for their team and they both have very bright futures this year... FSU and Miami will be determining a good portion of this season with BYU hosting FSU and Oklahoma heading to South Florida, they both will be up to the challenge
Friday, September 4, 2009
2009 Week 1 Rankings: Sooners Surprise at the Top
Do not put much to any stock in these preseason rankings. They are pretty much the average of all the polls available and an early formulation of the strength of schedule component. And that computation is far from complete at this point of the season. There is really too little data to make an accurate ranking under any system.
But the results are still surprising and show how much a poor schedule might hurt No. 2 Florida.
Oklahoma tops the preseason rankings and will star the year off at No. 1. With a big game against No. 24 Brigham Young, the Sooners could pick up some big quality wins points as well.
The big thing I noticed so far is schedules and how they will stack up. Florida plays an average-weak schedule.
The toughest schedule belongs to No. 4 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have some interesting non-conference games to go with a tough ACC schedule. But the ACC always seems to struggle. If the Hokies can get past No. 6 Alabama in Atlanta this weekend, slot the Hokies as a dark horse to win the title. They have always ranked well in my standings because of a particularly strong defense. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, again, don't put too much stock in these rankings. I personally think Oklahoma, Florida and No. 5 Texas are the three top teams in the nation and are relatively interchangeable. I am looking forward to seeing how these teams play this weekend.
Here is the Top 15:
1. Oklahoma 33.5
2. Florida +2.5
2. USC +2.5
4. Virginia Tech +3.25
5. Texas +5
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
11. LSU
12. Georgia Tech
13. California
14. Florida State
15. Penn State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Ole Miss, 17. North Carolina, 18. Nebraska, 19. Notre Dame, 20. Iowa, 21. Kansas, 22. Oregon State, 23. Brigham Young, 24. Utah, 25. TCU
Game of the Week: 4 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Alabama at Atlanta, Ga -- this is probably the most anticipated matchup of the week. The Tide's win over Clemson last year in the Georgia Dome jumpstarted a surprising run to the SEC Championship Game and nearly the BCS National Championship game. The Hokies should provide a much stiffer challenge than the Tigers did last year.
But the results are still surprising and show how much a poor schedule might hurt No. 2 Florida.
Oklahoma tops the preseason rankings and will star the year off at No. 1. With a big game against No. 24 Brigham Young, the Sooners could pick up some big quality wins points as well.
The big thing I noticed so far is schedules and how they will stack up. Florida plays an average-weak schedule.
The toughest schedule belongs to No. 4 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have some interesting non-conference games to go with a tough ACC schedule. But the ACC always seems to struggle. If the Hokies can get past No. 6 Alabama in Atlanta this weekend, slot the Hokies as a dark horse to win the title. They have always ranked well in my standings because of a particularly strong defense. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, again, don't put too much stock in these rankings. I personally think Oklahoma, Florida and No. 5 Texas are the three top teams in the nation and are relatively interchangeable. I am looking forward to seeing how these teams play this weekend.
Here is the Top 15:
1. Oklahoma 33.5
2. Florida +2.5
2. USC +2.5
4. Virginia Tech +3.25
5. Texas +5
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
11. LSU
12. Georgia Tech
13. California
14. Florida State
15. Penn State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Ole Miss, 17. North Carolina, 18. Nebraska, 19. Notre Dame, 20. Iowa, 21. Kansas, 22. Oregon State, 23. Brigham Young, 24. Utah, 25. TCU
Game of the Week: 4 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Alabama at Atlanta, Ga -- this is probably the most anticipated matchup of the week. The Tide's win over Clemson last year in the Georgia Dome jumpstarted a surprising run to the SEC Championship Game and nearly the BCS National Championship game. The Hokies should provide a much stiffer challenge than the Tigers did last year.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Welcome to Phil's BCS
Ever since I was young and really started getting into college football, one thing bugged the hell out of me. These rankings suck. They are based on the opinions of people who really don't watch enough college football and have no clue what's really going on.
Plus, they were not ranking my Florida Gators very highly. I was six or seven, what do you want from me.
So I learned how to use Microsoft XCel and experimented with other ways to rank college football teams.
So I hit my computer, still unhappy with where the BCS ranked my favorite team and resolved to create a new system for ranking the teams. This is not nearly as scientific or mathematical as those used in the BCS Computer Rankings (rankings that should be given much more weight in the actual BCS).
The system I devised was one based on the purest form of ranking: statistics. I started looking at six very key stats and broke them down simply. I ranked the teams based on rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, points scored, points allowed and rushing yard and passing yards allowed per game and compared them to other ranked teams.
I took this ranking and averaged it out for both an offensive and defensive ranking. This would give me a true look at how teams truly ranked.
Now obviously, stats cannot do it alone. Some teams run up the score (something I have always encouraged) and play weak opponents (something I do not encourage). So after adding some tweaks -- like using the polls available and actually used by the BCS or by respected media outlets and adding a strength of schedule and quality wins component -- I began ranking the college football teams.
To say the least, my ranking have done a pretty good job creating ideal national championship matchups and national champions. True, in the three years I have kept track of my previous rankings, it has not differed from the BCS. But throughout the middle of the season things change.
The purpose of this blog is twofold. First, it will allow me a place to publish these rankings and see how they progress and analyze them more. It will also allow me to take on ideas on how to improve them.
Second, it will also be a place to comment on the college football season. Something we all love doing.
I hope to be able to write more about the rankings in the coming days as well as release a belated Week 1 Rankings before Saturday's games.
Until then, so glad to see college football back. And it is going to be great to have the rankings back after a two year hiatus.
Plus, they were not ranking my Florida Gators very highly. I was six or seven, what do you want from me.
So I learned how to use Microsoft XCel and experimented with other ways to rank college football teams.
So I hit my computer, still unhappy with where the BCS ranked my favorite team and resolved to create a new system for ranking the teams. This is not nearly as scientific or mathematical as those used in the BCS Computer Rankings (rankings that should be given much more weight in the actual BCS).
The system I devised was one based on the purest form of ranking: statistics. I started looking at six very key stats and broke them down simply. I ranked the teams based on rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, points scored, points allowed and rushing yard and passing yards allowed per game and compared them to other ranked teams.
I took this ranking and averaged it out for both an offensive and defensive ranking. This would give me a true look at how teams truly ranked.
Now obviously, stats cannot do it alone. Some teams run up the score (something I have always encouraged) and play weak opponents (something I do not encourage). So after adding some tweaks -- like using the polls available and actually used by the BCS or by respected media outlets and adding a strength of schedule and quality wins component -- I began ranking the college football teams.
To say the least, my ranking have done a pretty good job creating ideal national championship matchups and national champions. True, in the three years I have kept track of my previous rankings, it has not differed from the BCS. But throughout the middle of the season things change.
The purpose of this blog is twofold. First, it will allow me a place to publish these rankings and see how they progress and analyze them more. It will also allow me to take on ideas on how to improve them.
Second, it will also be a place to comment on the college football season. Something we all love doing.
I hope to be able to write more about the rankings in the coming days as well as release a belated Week 1 Rankings before Saturday's games.
Until then, so glad to see college football back. And it is going to be great to have the rankings back after a two year hiatus.
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