Losses hurt. Especially in college football. You hear it at the beginning of every season about how important it is to go undefeated and control your own destiny. It seems that every year, one team has a gripe with the BCS for that one tiny little loss.
Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.
Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.
How could this happen?
Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.
But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.
And they especially hurt this week.
In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.
No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.
To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.
But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.
Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.
Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.
Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.
How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.
But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.
The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.
Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.
Showing posts with label Ohio State Buckeyes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ohio State Buckeyes. Show all posts
Friday, September 18, 2009
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Thoughts From Week 2 2009
Troy vs. No. 2 Florida: the first quarter was some very concerning football from Florida, cutesy football does not work at the start and the Gators looked a little unprepared for what the Trojans threw at them and it definitely led to some poor football... sorry, I am just not a fan of the option, it certainly has its place but it is not the primary weapon of a top-level team... all those penalties are going to catch up with Florida at some point, team needed a little discipline... but even after all the struggles, the Gators responded and just poured it on Troy, after the adjustment it was clear the two teams were in different leagues... Tim Tebow's throwing motion looks much crisper but it still kept all its power, watch the touchdown throw to Riley Cooper and Brandon James and compare it to some of his earlier throws, he is a much more pro-ready quarterback... Chris Rainey is fast.
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. Michigan: both teams made some tremendous plays in this great finish... very impressed by freshman quarterback Tate Forcier he stepped up in a big situation in a very big game that his coach needed... this was one of those games between two pretty evenly matched teams that came down to the last possession and it was just tough luck for Notre Dame... having said that, neither team was fantastic, a lot of those plays at the end apparently were happening throughout... the Wolverines are going to be pretty good once Rich Rodriguez can build up that talent.
UCLA vs. No. 7 Tennessee: this is an example of what one good statistical week can do, I do not think the Volunteers are the seventh best team in the league but a statistical anomaly can really skew these rankings, don't wory they will get better as the year goes on... the Bruins stepped up and won this game.
No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State: this started to look like last year's game with that interception on the first play but credit Terelle Pryor for rallying the troops early and making this a game... do not underestimate how important it was that the game was 7-7 at the end of one quarter, it set the tone for the competitiveness this game had... the Trojans look kind of young, quarterback Matt Barkley has looked a little rattled at times and the Trojans were out of timeouts midway through the second quarter... like Florida, USC has some good running backs, more between the tackles than the Gators and not as fast, but just as good... Tyrelle Pryor has running quarterback's sydrome, he thinks he can make any play with his legs and often extends it well with his scrambling ability, but he could also be getting hit deep behind the line of scrimmage for a big loss, USC's defense is fast, but it is young and Pryor is getting away with it... it sounds obvious, but Barkley was a lot more efficient with time, that is even more obvious considering Ohio State was coming at him with pressure all night, but the freshman stepped up with the Trojans needing a good drive in the fourth quarter... having said that, ESPN's description of Barkley being USC's savior? Yeah right, Joe McKnight won this game for the Trojans with his running at the end of the game... Ohio State learned tonight that touchdowns are better than field goals, they won this game in the second half until USC's final drive... Pryor looked like the freshman tonight as he was throwing off his back foot at the end and succumbing to the USC pressure, just a bad performance from the experienced leader.
South Carolina vs. Georgia: Georgia escaped here and makes you wonder what is up with the SEC this year, it definitely is not what it usually is... the Gamecocks could have had a cahnce to win this game, sometimes you just have to duck your head and take on a linebacker Tim Tebow style, the quarterbacks willing to do that are the winners.
No. 10 Notre Dame vs. Michigan: both teams made some tremendous plays in this great finish... very impressed by freshman quarterback Tate Forcier he stepped up in a big situation in a very big game that his coach needed... this was one of those games between two pretty evenly matched teams that came down to the last possession and it was just tough luck for Notre Dame... having said that, neither team was fantastic, a lot of those plays at the end apparently were happening throughout... the Wolverines are going to be pretty good once Rich Rodriguez can build up that talent.
UCLA vs. No. 7 Tennessee: this is an example of what one good statistical week can do, I do not think the Volunteers are the seventh best team in the league but a statistical anomaly can really skew these rankings, don't wory they will get better as the year goes on... the Bruins stepped up and won this game.
No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State: this started to look like last year's game with that interception on the first play but credit Terelle Pryor for rallying the troops early and making this a game... do not underestimate how important it was that the game was 7-7 at the end of one quarter, it set the tone for the competitiveness this game had... the Trojans look kind of young, quarterback Matt Barkley has looked a little rattled at times and the Trojans were out of timeouts midway through the second quarter... like Florida, USC has some good running backs, more between the tackles than the Gators and not as fast, but just as good... Tyrelle Pryor has running quarterback's sydrome, he thinks he can make any play with his legs and often extends it well with his scrambling ability, but he could also be getting hit deep behind the line of scrimmage for a big loss, USC's defense is fast, but it is young and Pryor is getting away with it... it sounds obvious, but Barkley was a lot more efficient with time, that is even more obvious considering Ohio State was coming at him with pressure all night, but the freshman stepped up with the Trojans needing a good drive in the fourth quarter... having said that, ESPN's description of Barkley being USC's savior? Yeah right, Joe McKnight won this game for the Trojans with his running at the end of the game... Ohio State learned tonight that touchdowns are better than field goals, they won this game in the second half until USC's final drive... Pryor looked like the freshman tonight as he was throwing off his back foot at the end and succumbing to the USC pressure, just a bad performance from the experienced leader.
South Carolina vs. Georgia: Georgia escaped here and makes you wonder what is up with the SEC this year, it definitely is not what it usually is... the Gamecocks could have had a cahnce to win this game, sometimes you just have to duck your head and take on a linebacker Tim Tebow style, the quarterbacks willing to do that are the winners.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
2009 Week 2 Rankings: Losses Hurt
Like last week's rankings, do not put too much stock into this week's rankings. There simply is not enough data to put together a complete ranking. In fact, I would hardly call this week's standings official. I do not like to call it official until every team included has played two games.
This week presented some problems as TCU did not even play. So it will be at least another two weeks before you can call these standings "official."
The Strength of schedule component is a little better and more complete, but obviously not there. And quality wins will not be apparent as teams that lost in the first week tended to drop.
Take last week's No. 1. Oklahoma lost to Brigham Young and dropped like a rock. Or take Tennessee who rose to No. 7 thanks to nearly 700 yards of total offense. A good game like that can really help a team rocket up the standings this early in the season. Thus, the warning.
Now that you have been fairly warned, here are the rankings for Week 2:
1. USC 44.632
2. Florida +17.327
3. Texas +28.647
4. Alabama +29.250
5. Penn State +34.468
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Kansas
9. Oklahoma State
10. Notre Dame
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Mississippi
14. Georgia Tech
15. Cincinnati
The rest of the top 25: 16. Oregon State; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Ohio State; 19. Utah; 20. Brigham Young; 21. Missouri; 22. Boston College; 23. Auburn; 24. Arkansas; 25. LSU
Top Offense: No. 7 Tennessee
Top Defense: No. 1 USC
Toughest Schedule: Georgia, ranked 32nd in standings
Easiest Schedule: Boise State, ranked 27th in standings and ranked eighth before adding schedule component
Game of the Week: No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State -- as a Big Ten fan, this game means a lot. The Buckeyes host the program that seems to be their entire conference's bane and a win would go a long way to improving the entire conference's image. Believe it or not, if Ohio State can even compete in this game it could lead to a big rise in the traditional polls (and a definite uptick here once stats and polls become official). The Trojans have a great defense again, but a lot of youth. Ohio State is the more experienced team. If the Buckeyes are going to get their win, they will do it now.
This week presented some problems as TCU did not even play. So it will be at least another two weeks before you can call these standings "official."
The Strength of schedule component is a little better and more complete, but obviously not there. And quality wins will not be apparent as teams that lost in the first week tended to drop.
Take last week's No. 1. Oklahoma lost to Brigham Young and dropped like a rock. Or take Tennessee who rose to No. 7 thanks to nearly 700 yards of total offense. A good game like that can really help a team rocket up the standings this early in the season. Thus, the warning.
Now that you have been fairly warned, here are the rankings for Week 2:
1. USC 44.632
2. Florida +17.327
3. Texas +28.647
4. Alabama +29.250
5. Penn State +34.468
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Kansas
9. Oklahoma State
10. Notre Dame
11. North Carolina
12. Nebraska
13. Mississippi
14. Georgia Tech
15. Cincinnati
The rest of the top 25: 16. Oregon State; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Ohio State; 19. Utah; 20. Brigham Young; 21. Missouri; 22. Boston College; 23. Auburn; 24. Arkansas; 25. LSU
Top Offense: No. 7 Tennessee
Top Defense: No. 1 USC
Toughest Schedule: Georgia, ranked 32nd in standings
Easiest Schedule: Boise State, ranked 27th in standings and ranked eighth before adding schedule component
Game of the Week: No. 1 USC vs. No. 18 Ohio State -- as a Big Ten fan, this game means a lot. The Buckeyes host the program that seems to be their entire conference's bane and a win would go a long way to improving the entire conference's image. Believe it or not, if Ohio State can even compete in this game it could lead to a big rise in the traditional polls (and a definite uptick here once stats and polls become official). The Trojans have a great defense again, but a lot of youth. Ohio State is the more experienced team. If the Buckeyes are going to get their win, they will do it now.
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