Inside the Numbers: Losses Hurt

Losses hurt. Especially in college football. You hear it at the beginning of every season about how important it is to go undefeated and control your own destiny. It seems that every year, one team has a gripe with the BCS for that one tiny little loss.

Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.

Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.

How could this happen?

Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.

But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.

And they especially hurt this week.

In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.

No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.

To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.

But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.

Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.

Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.

Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.

How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.

But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.

The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.

Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.