Every ranking system has those few teams that sit way too high and readers scratch their heads and say, "What is this team doing there?" Believe me, when I looked at this week's top 25 I thought, "Arkansas? Texas A&M? They cannot be that good."
Especially since no one else thinks the No. 16 Razorbacks or the No. 25 Aggies are that good, let alone No. 15 Auburn. So how did these teams climb so much?
Arkansas, Texas A&M and Auburn are ranked very low or not at all by the two main human polls. The Aggies were left completely out of the AP and the Coach's Poll. That is a pretty bad start out of the gate.
The three teams also do not rank highly in the next two human polls I use. The Aggies are No. 68 in the CBS Sportsline 120, the Razorbacks are No. 51, and the Tigers No. 41. That seems to set them even further back. Auburn gets a nice bump from College Football News' No. 11 ranking, but that is more of an outlier than an actual boost. The other two teams are still not quite strong in the poll category.
The most variable component in the polls is the use of the Computer Rankings used in the BCS. These rankings, like mine are largely dependent on game statistics and complicated strength of schedule formulas. Much more complicated than mine for sure.
Thus, these are not as reliable, but still a good buoy this early in the season.
But none of these three teams performs well in the computer polls. Arkansas' poll average is around 45, Auburn 34 and Texas A&M 53. These three teams started very far behind.
So turn to the offense and defense ratings.
Offense is where the teams really make up ground. All three hover around 10 with Texas A&M having an outstanding 8.964 rating.
Remember the offense and defense ratings are found by averaging the rankings against other teams in the standings in three key statistics.
The Aggies have a 5.208 rating for their pass offense, which means, in essence, they have the fifth best passing attack among other ranked teams. They are about ninth in running and 12th in scoring. Their defense is not shabby either coming in at 14.732.
Again, who have they played? Not anybody special. And the Aggies continue not to play anybody special with a strength of schedule hovering around 40. One loss from the Aggies or one bad game will cause them to drop.
Arkansas also has a strong offense matched with a strong defense. As does Auburn.
It shows you one thing about these rankings. It is not about having the best passing attack or the best rush defense. It is about having a high average on offense and defense. The Tigers, Razorbacks and Aggies proved that this week.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment