I am sure a lot of people are expecting Florida to remain the top team after a win against Tennessee. That is usually how polls work. But the No. 2 Gators did not exactly dominate the Volunteers last week at Florida Field.
The great thing I love about the way my rankings work is that winning is a necessity, but winning in a dominating fashion is even more of a necessity. This does not mean schedule weak, as Florida is learning in its short tumble. But no team can have an off week, like Tim Tebow and the Gators had last week, and expect to hold onto their position.
Instead the most consistent teams who play the tougher schedules rise to the top. This week that top team is No. 1 Alabama.
I have been waiting for the Crimson Tide to get to the top spot after being ranked No. 4 last week. I absolutely love this team -- see my thoughts from Week 1 in their thrashing of the No. 18 Hokies in Atlanta. They play defense and run the ball well. They are, to my eye, the best team in the country right now. Clearly Florida and No. 5 Texas are riding the laurels of last season's success.
There are certainly going to be some surprises in this week's rankings -- as No. 4 Oklahoma has leap-frogged up the polls despite losing a game, something that I would consider more of a mathematical fluke than anything else -- but I would expect things to settle as the week moves on.
Here is this week's top 15:
1. Alabama 53.279
2. Florida +0.8
3. California +14.83
4. Oklahoma +15.719
5. Texas +21.004
6. USC
7. Mississippi (stats recorded before Thursday night's loss)
8. Kansas
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. TCU
14. Auburn
15. Missouri
The rest of the Top 25: 16. North Carolina; 17. Ohio State; 18. Virginia Tech; 19. Nebraska; 20. Florida State; 21. Boise State; 22. Michigan; 23. Brigham Young; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia
Top Offense: No. 2 Florida, Texas A&M (ranked 29th in standings)
Top Defense: No. 10 Penn State
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 12 Miami
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 Oklahoma
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 8 Kansas
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 21 Boise State
Game of the Week: 12 Miami (Fl.) vs. 18 Virginia Tech- the Hurricanes ridiculous start continues as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies. The history of this rivalry in the 2000s is well documented as Virginia Tech nearly ruined a couple Miami national championship runs. It is pretty safe to say that this game is very much in the same vein the way the Hurricanes are playing (at least until Miami hosts Oklahoma next week). This should be a very good game and could very well decide which team takes control of the ACC this year. The Hokies and Hurricanes do not rank fantastically in either offense or defense in the ratings, but we all know they have a solid defense. This game will come down to the quarterbacks and who can execute. The scary part is, both have proven they can perform under pressure in big games this season.
Showing posts with label Virginia Tech Hokies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Virginia Tech Hokies. Show all posts
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Inside the Numbers: Losses Hurt
Losses hurt. Especially in college football. You hear it at the beginning of every season about how important it is to go undefeated and control your own destiny. It seems that every year, one team has a gripe with the BCS for that one tiny little loss.
Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.
Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.
How could this happen?
Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.
But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.
And they especially hurt this week.
In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.
No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.
To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.
But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.
Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.
Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.
Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.
How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.
But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.
The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.
Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.
Suffice it to say, it pays to go undefeated. And the rankings this week reflect that.
Only one team -- No. 11 Oklahoma -- in the top 25 has a loss. And that one loss helped buoy No. 3 Brigham Young to its ranking thanks to a quality win credit. The other teams rated this week that had a loss all lie outside the top 25.
How could this happen?
Well clearly, I personally do not think that Oklahoma State or Georgia or Ohio State are that bad. They are pretty good teams and deserve top 25 recognition over some teams that are in the top 25 -- looking at you Texas A&M.
But this early in the season with so little data, wins matter much more for the overall rankings. Losses plainly hurt.
And they especially hurt this week.
In my formula losses are multiplied by the difference between the top two teams as long as it is equal to at least one. This usually magnifies the importance of winning and ensures a two loss team is never ahead of a one loss team at the top of the standings.
No. 2 USC was the top-rated team last week and it held a pretty wide margin over the second-rated team, No. 1 Florida. 17.327 to be exact. That is a pretty big shift.
To explain this week's ratings, Florida's win over lowly Troy helped it hop over USC. The Trojans' win over the Buckeyes will be reflected in later weeks as the Buckeyes climb back up the ratings after their loss.
But let's take a look at exactly how important that 17.327 was for those teams with one loss.
Oklahoma would climb from No. 11 to No. 6 if it had not lost to Brigham Young just based on losses alone. And that would be No. 5 because they would have defeated the Cougars.
Ohio State is currently rated 33rd in the standings. Take away the amount for that loss? The Buckeyes are No. 23. A pretty steep drop, but still a chance to move up.
Virginia Tech, currently 31st in the standings, climbs to No. 17.
How about a team that struggled to 1-1, like Florida State? The Seminoles are currently rated 38th in the standings. If the receiver could have held on to that catch in the end zone, they would climb to only 33rd in the standings. Obviously there would be different strength of schedule and poll components to factor in.
But this gives you a pretty good idea of how tight the standings actually are. One loss can drop a team significantly.
The good news for these teams is that they should climb back up as long as they continue to play well. The amount losses are multiplied by is a floating amount throughout the season. the 17-plus amount that losses were magnified by is not normal. Remember, it is early in the season and there is not a whole lot of data yet.
Next week, it is a lowly 5.207. That could change everything.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Thoughts From Week 1 2009
No. 10 Oregon vs. Boise State: Oregon and Boise State are known for their big offenses and ESPN loved advertising it as an offensive matchup, but the defenses are not bad and will be the key to success for either team this season... the Broncos don't usually play a strong enough schedule to make it to the BCS without going undefeated, but there are some decent teams on the schedule this year... Broncos are proving in the first half how important special teams are, this should be 6-0 midway through the second quarter, that changes the game... the struggles of Boise State and Oregon on offense in the first half of this game shows why teams need a preseason game in college football, a big game like this should not be decided by such raw, untested schemes and just one game would help; it proves why playing FCS teams actually help despite the image hit.
No. 23 Brigham Young Cougars vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Sam Bradford really makes this team, you can tell Oklahoma is a different team without its Heisman-winning quarterback, I know you can say that about most teams but the Sooners are clearly not as efficient... you have to feel bad for Oklahoma at some point, the team lost DeMarco Murray for the BCS National Championship Game last year, lost Jermaine Grisham before the BYU game and might be without Bradford for 2-4 weeks... having said all that, BYU is a really good team and should not be overlooked, the Cougars had a good season last year and are just as good with Max Hall coming back at quarterback... as much of a statement as the Broncos made against the Ducks, the Cougars have a better chance of not only making a BCS bowl but they might have a fair shake at making the BCS National Championship Game if the pieces fall right, this win will go a long way but they will hav eto go undefeated.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: this game certainly lived up to its hype as the Hokies and Crimson Tide played in a classic battle... but Alabama's defense was as good as advertised, it gave up a couple big plays at the end and a kickoff return but really stymied the Virginia Tech offense all night, the Hokies are the best team in the ACC and even in a somewhat dominating defeat, still looked like they should handle the conference easily... but the Tide just dominated the Hokies physically, the o-line and d-line were getting all the push they wanted up front and that's a recipe for success as both of them are very strong... I was most impressed with running back Mark Ingram, the dude is built like a tank and his 150-plus yard performance may be a statistical high for the year, but he will be wearing out defenses for a long time to come this year, it won't be the last time the Tide steamroll an opponent in the fourth quarter
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: the Bearcats just looked like they were in a different league than the Scarlet Knights, a completely unexpected mismatch... not to say Rutgers will not be fine, Cincinnati is a very good team... very impressed by Tony Pike, he picked Rutgers' defense apart all day
Miami (Fl.) vs. No. 14 Florida State: never thought I would see both of these teams get out to the offensive start they did Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris had free reign in the pocket despite some big hits early... this turned out to be one of those classic rivalry games but with a different M-O, I was surprised at how the secondaries got abused in this one, I thought Miami and FSU were great defenses... young quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris did more than enough to win this game for their team and they both have very bright futures this year... FSU and Miami will be determining a good portion of this season with BYU hosting FSU and Oklahoma heading to South Florida, they both will be up to the challenge
No. 23 Brigham Young Cougars vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Sam Bradford really makes this team, you can tell Oklahoma is a different team without its Heisman-winning quarterback, I know you can say that about most teams but the Sooners are clearly not as efficient... you have to feel bad for Oklahoma at some point, the team lost DeMarco Murray for the BCS National Championship Game last year, lost Jermaine Grisham before the BYU game and might be without Bradford for 2-4 weeks... having said all that, BYU is a really good team and should not be overlooked, the Cougars had a good season last year and are just as good with Max Hall coming back at quarterback... as much of a statement as the Broncos made against the Ducks, the Cougars have a better chance of not only making a BCS bowl but they might have a fair shake at making the BCS National Championship Game if the pieces fall right, this win will go a long way but they will hav eto go undefeated.
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: this game certainly lived up to its hype as the Hokies and Crimson Tide played in a classic battle... but Alabama's defense was as good as advertised, it gave up a couple big plays at the end and a kickoff return but really stymied the Virginia Tech offense all night, the Hokies are the best team in the ACC and even in a somewhat dominating defeat, still looked like they should handle the conference easily... but the Tide just dominated the Hokies physically, the o-line and d-line were getting all the push they wanted up front and that's a recipe for success as both of them are very strong... I was most impressed with running back Mark Ingram, the dude is built like a tank and his 150-plus yard performance may be a statistical high for the year, but he will be wearing out defenses for a long time to come this year, it won't be the last time the Tide steamroll an opponent in the fourth quarter
Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: the Bearcats just looked like they were in a different league than the Scarlet Knights, a completely unexpected mismatch... not to say Rutgers will not be fine, Cincinnati is a very good team... very impressed by Tony Pike, he picked Rutgers' defense apart all day
Miami (Fl.) vs. No. 14 Florida State: never thought I would see both of these teams get out to the offensive start they did Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris had free reign in the pocket despite some big hits early... this turned out to be one of those classic rivalry games but with a different M-O, I was surprised at how the secondaries got abused in this one, I thought Miami and FSU were great defenses... young quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris did more than enough to win this game for their team and they both have very bright futures this year... FSU and Miami will be determining a good portion of this season with BYU hosting FSU and Oklahoma heading to South Florida, they both will be up to the challenge
Friday, September 4, 2009
2009 Week 1 Rankings: Sooners Surprise at the Top
Do not put much to any stock in these preseason rankings. They are pretty much the average of all the polls available and an early formulation of the strength of schedule component. And that computation is far from complete at this point of the season. There is really too little data to make an accurate ranking under any system.
But the results are still surprising and show how much a poor schedule might hurt No. 2 Florida.
Oklahoma tops the preseason rankings and will star the year off at No. 1. With a big game against No. 24 Brigham Young, the Sooners could pick up some big quality wins points as well.
The big thing I noticed so far is schedules and how they will stack up. Florida plays an average-weak schedule.
The toughest schedule belongs to No. 4 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have some interesting non-conference games to go with a tough ACC schedule. But the ACC always seems to struggle. If the Hokies can get past No. 6 Alabama in Atlanta this weekend, slot the Hokies as a dark horse to win the title. They have always ranked well in my standings because of a particularly strong defense. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, again, don't put too much stock in these rankings. I personally think Oklahoma, Florida and No. 5 Texas are the three top teams in the nation and are relatively interchangeable. I am looking forward to seeing how these teams play this weekend.
Here is the Top 15:
1. Oklahoma 33.5
2. Florida +2.5
2. USC +2.5
4. Virginia Tech +3.25
5. Texas +5
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
11. LSU
12. Georgia Tech
13. California
14. Florida State
15. Penn State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Ole Miss, 17. North Carolina, 18. Nebraska, 19. Notre Dame, 20. Iowa, 21. Kansas, 22. Oregon State, 23. Brigham Young, 24. Utah, 25. TCU
Game of the Week: 4 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Alabama at Atlanta, Ga -- this is probably the most anticipated matchup of the week. The Tide's win over Clemson last year in the Georgia Dome jumpstarted a surprising run to the SEC Championship Game and nearly the BCS National Championship game. The Hokies should provide a much stiffer challenge than the Tigers did last year.
But the results are still surprising and show how much a poor schedule might hurt No. 2 Florida.
Oklahoma tops the preseason rankings and will star the year off at No. 1. With a big game against No. 24 Brigham Young, the Sooners could pick up some big quality wins points as well.
The big thing I noticed so far is schedules and how they will stack up. Florida plays an average-weak schedule.
The toughest schedule belongs to No. 4 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have some interesting non-conference games to go with a tough ACC schedule. But the ACC always seems to struggle. If the Hokies can get past No. 6 Alabama in Atlanta this weekend, slot the Hokies as a dark horse to win the title. They have always ranked well in my standings because of a particularly strong defense. Just something to keep an eye on.
Otherwise, again, don't put too much stock in these rankings. I personally think Oklahoma, Florida and No. 5 Texas are the three top teams in the nation and are relatively interchangeable. I am looking forward to seeing how these teams play this weekend.
Here is the Top 15:
1. Oklahoma 33.5
2. Florida +2.5
2. USC +2.5
4. Virginia Tech +3.25
5. Texas +5
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
11. LSU
12. Georgia Tech
13. California
14. Florida State
15. Penn State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Ole Miss, 17. North Carolina, 18. Nebraska, 19. Notre Dame, 20. Iowa, 21. Kansas, 22. Oregon State, 23. Brigham Young, 24. Utah, 25. TCU
Game of the Week: 4 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Alabama at Atlanta, Ga -- this is probably the most anticipated matchup of the week. The Tide's win over Clemson last year in the Georgia Dome jumpstarted a surprising run to the SEC Championship Game and nearly the BCS National Championship game. The Hokies should provide a much stiffer challenge than the Tigers did last year.
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