2009 Week 8 Rankings: The Big Game Blowout

Because my rankings are so stats based, there is always one problem that seems to perplex me. You will notice that Texas has dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 even though they are still undefeated and new No. 3 USC has one loss.

This happens for a couple of reasons.

The first, well, Oklahoma is not that good anymore and Texas did not get the usual boost from a game against them that they would in the strength of schedule. The Longhorns got credited with less quality wins and that 1.5 point bump to their strength of schedule was certainly something out of their control.

Obviously they did not move around too much in the polls -- computer or human. So the only explanation is that big games hurt. You are playing a better team and you are going to have worse stats.

Take another curiosity, No. 2 Florida closed the gap on No. 1 Alabama by nearly two points this week even after narrowly escaping from Arkansas. The defensive rating took a dip, but was still strong. Why did the Gators do this? I would bet because they had an outlier in their passing performance that bumped them up the passing list.

As both teams go on with their schedule, I would assume things will settle down. I certainly believe Texas to be the third best team in the country as things stand -- although I think the closer margin is probably a better representation of how much better Alabama is than Florida.

But, again, playing against better opponents hurts the stat column and can cause some significant shifting in the stats.

This is not to encourage teams to play bad teams. The point of strength of schedule is to penalize teams that play poor teams -- play too many teams ranked in the 100s and you are adding 5-6 points to your score and a FCS team gets you 6.5 point to your overall total. I think strength of schedule needs to be a reduced factor, but without it I think a team like USC (who has a very strong schedule by the way and played a big game themselves against an unranked Notre Dame team last week) would probably be ranked even higher and these rankings would lose all legitimacy.

It will be interesting to see where Texas moves as things settle down this week.

Here is the top 15:

1. Alabama 53.22
2. Florida +5.719
3. USC +14.773
4. Texas +15.851
5. Cincinnati +22.015
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. TCU
9. Iowa
10. Penn State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgia Tech
15. Oklahoma State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. West Virginia; 17. South Florida; 18. Kansas; 19. Oklahoma; 20. Pittsburgh; 21. LSU; 22. Ohio State; 23. Texas Tech; 24. Nebraska; 25. Utah

2009 Week 7 Rankings: Revenge of the Mid-Majors!

I will admit that the ranking system is not egalitarian at all. In fact, it is notoriously mean to the non-BCS schools -- and weak BCS conferences.

Case in point, Boise State. The Broncos are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the nation and have shown with that beating of No. 8 Oregon early in the season that they deserve to have a chance at the national championship if they go undefeated.

But Boise State has struggled in the rankings thanks to the weak schedule that comes with being a member of the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State has bounced all over the place going from 13 to 21 one week and then slowly climbing back up. Last week the Broncos cracked the top 10 going seventh.

Boise State had no drop this week with a No. 6 ranking in the polls. It appears that the Broncos can and should have a chance at playing for the national championship no matter how you break it down.

Going undefeated will not be enough for them though. That schedule is a big hurdle to overcome. They will likely have to be the only undefeated team remaining to reach the top two in the standings. And even then, I am skeptical they can make it.

The loss addition currently sits at a large 7.381 (meaning each loss counts for 7.381 points) and it is going to be about the same since No. 2 Florida's own weak schedule is keeping them from maintaining its top position from No. 1 Alabama.

If one of those two teams were to fall, the loss addition might increase. That would hurt a high-ranking one-loss team like No. 4 USC or No. 5 Virginia Tech. But if both Florida and Alabama fall and things get tight at the top, the Broncos could go tumbling.

A weak schedule certainly hurts a lot. All the Broncos can do is control what they can and let the chips fall.

1. Alabama 49.028
2. Florida +7.356
3. Texas +15.456
4. USC +17.031
5. Virginia Tech +23.154
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. South Florida
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. TCU
14. Iowa
15. Ohio State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Miami (Fl.); 18. Brigham Young; 19. Oklahoma State; 20. Auburn; 21. LSU; 22. West Virginia; 23. South Carolina; 24. Georgia Tech; 25. Missouri

Top Offense: 10 Kansas
Top Defense: 2 Florida

2009 Week 6 Rankings: Settling In

You can tell teams are really starting to settle into the season as the top three is still the same as last week. It is late and I want to get this out so here are the rankings:

1. Alabama 49.067
2. Florida +7.381
3. Texas +13.36
4. USC +13.833
5. Kansas +32.307
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Ohio State
9. Auburn
10. LSU
11. TCU
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Florida
14. Nebraska
15. Iowa
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Oregon; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Penn State; 19. Missouri; 20. Mississippi; 21. Oklahoma State; 22. South Carolina; 23. Wisconsin; 24. Miami (Fl.); 25. Brigham Young

Top Offense: No. 3 Texas
Top Defense: No. 2 Florida
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 24 Miami
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 13 South Florida
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 USC
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 7 Boise State, Houston (ranked No. 34)

2009 Week 5 Rankings: Topsy-Turvy World

It has been very topsy turvy at the top this season. But Alabama and Florida remain the constants. These are very late and I need to get some sleep for my road trip to West Lafayette, Ind., for tomorrow's Northwestern game. So here are the top 15 and basic info:

1. Alabama 47.844
2. Florida +6.955
3. Texas +12.956
4. USC +14.178
5. Oklahoma +14.625
6. Ohio State
7. Kansas
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cincinnati
10. Nebraska
11. Boise State
12. Iowa
13. TCU
14. LSU
15. Auburn
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Oklahoma State; 18. Oregon; 19. California; 20. Mississippi; 21. Missouri; 22. Brigham Young; 23. Georgia; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia Tech

2009 Week 4 Rankings: A Win is No Guarantee

I am sure a lot of people are expecting Florida to remain the top team after a win against Tennessee. That is usually how polls work. But the No. 2 Gators did not exactly dominate the Volunteers last week at Florida Field.

The great thing I love about the way my rankings work is that winning is a necessity, but winning in a dominating fashion is even more of a necessity. This does not mean schedule weak, as Florida is learning in its short tumble. But no team can have an off week, like Tim Tebow and the Gators had last week, and expect to hold onto their position.

Instead the most consistent teams who play the tougher schedules rise to the top. This week that top team is No. 1 Alabama.

I have been waiting for the Crimson Tide to get to the top spot after being ranked No. 4 last week. I absolutely love this team -- see my thoughts from Week 1 in their thrashing of the No. 18 Hokies in Atlanta. They play defense and run the ball well. They are, to my eye, the best team in the country right now. Clearly Florida and No. 5 Texas are riding the laurels of last season's success.

There are certainly going to be some surprises in this week's rankings -- as No. 4 Oklahoma has leap-frogged up the polls despite losing a game, something that I would consider more of a mathematical fluke than anything else -- but I would expect things to settle as the week moves on.

Here is this week's top 15:

1. Alabama 53.279
2. Florida +0.8
3. California +14.83
4. Oklahoma +15.719
5. Texas +21.004
6. USC
7. Mississippi (stats recorded before Thursday night's loss)
8. Kansas
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. TCU
14. Auburn
15. Missouri
The rest of the Top 25: 16. North Carolina; 17. Ohio State; 18. Virginia Tech; 19. Nebraska; 20. Florida State; 21. Boise State; 22. Michigan; 23. Brigham Young; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia

Top Offense: No. 2 Florida, Texas A&M (ranked 29th in standings)
Top Defense: No. 10 Penn State
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 12 Miami
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 Oklahoma
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 8 Kansas
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 21 Boise State

Game of the Week: 12 Miami (Fl.) vs. 18 Virginia Tech- the Hurricanes ridiculous start continues as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies. The history of this rivalry in the 2000s is well documented as Virginia Tech nearly ruined a couple Miami national championship runs. It is pretty safe to say that this game is very much in the same vein the way the Hurricanes are playing (at least until Miami hosts Oklahoma next week). This should be a very good game and could very well decide which team takes control of the ACC this year. The Hokies and Hurricanes do not rank fantastically in either offense or defense in the ratings, but we all know they have a solid defense. This game will come down to the quarterbacks and who can execute. The scary part is, both have proven they can perform under pressure in big games this season.

Thoughts From Week 1 2009

No. 10 Oregon vs. Boise State: Oregon and Boise State are known for their big offenses and ESPN loved advertising it as an offensive matchup, but the defenses are not bad and will be the key to success for either team this season... the Broncos don't usually play a strong enough schedule to make it to the BCS without going undefeated, but there are some decent teams on the schedule this year... Broncos are proving in the first half how important special teams are, this should be 6-0 midway through the second quarter, that changes the game... the struggles of Boise State and Oregon on offense in the first half of this game shows why teams need a preseason game in college football, a big game like this should not be decided by such raw, untested schemes and just one game would help; it proves why playing FCS teams actually help despite the image hit.

No. 23 Brigham Young Cougars vs. No. 1 Oklahoma: Sam Bradford really makes this team, you can tell Oklahoma is a different team without its Heisman-winning quarterback, I know you can say that about most teams but the Sooners are clearly not as efficient... you have to feel bad for Oklahoma at some point, the team lost DeMarco Murray for the BCS National Championship Game last year, lost Jermaine Grisham before the BYU game and might be without Bradford for 2-4 weeks... having said all that, BYU is a really good team and should not be overlooked, the Cougars had a good season last year and are just as good with Max Hall coming back at quarterback... as much of a statement as the Broncos made against the Ducks, the Cougars have a better chance of not only making a BCS bowl but they might have a fair shake at making the BCS National Championship Game if the pieces fall right, this win will go a long way but they will hav eto go undefeated.

No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech: this game certainly lived up to its hype as the Hokies and Crimson Tide played in a classic battle... but Alabama's defense was as good as advertised, it gave up a couple big plays at the end and a kickoff return but really stymied the Virginia Tech offense all night, the Hokies are the best team in the ACC and even in a somewhat dominating defeat, still looked like they should handle the conference easily... but the Tide just dominated the Hokies physically, the o-line and d-line were getting all the push they wanted up front and that's a recipe for success as both of them are very strong... I was most impressed with running back Mark Ingram, the dude is built like a tank and his 150-plus yard performance may be a statistical high for the year, but he will be wearing out defenses for a long time to come this year, it won't be the last time the Tide steamroll an opponent in the fourth quarter

Cincinnati vs. Rutgers: the Bearcats just looked like they were in a different league than the Scarlet Knights, a completely unexpected mismatch... not to say Rutgers will not be fine, Cincinnati is a very good team... very impressed by Tony Pike, he picked Rutgers' defense apart all day

Miami (Fl.) vs. No. 14 Florida State: never thought I would see both of these teams get out to the offensive start they did Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris had free reign in the pocket despite some big hits early... this turned out to be one of those classic rivalry games but with a different M-O, I was surprised at how the secondaries got abused in this one, I thought Miami and FSU were great defenses... young quarterbacks Christian Ponder and Jacory Harris did more than enough to win this game for their team and they both have very bright futures this year... FSU and Miami will be determining a good portion of this season with BYU hosting FSU and Oklahoma heading to South Florida, they both will be up to the challenge

2009 Week 1 Rankings: Sooners Surprise at the Top

Do not put much to any stock in these preseason rankings. They are pretty much the average of all the polls available and an early formulation of the strength of schedule component. And that computation is far from complete at this point of the season. There is really too little data to make an accurate ranking under any system.

But the results are still surprising and show how much a poor schedule might hurt No. 2 Florida.

Oklahoma tops the preseason rankings and will star the year off at No. 1. With a big game against No. 24 Brigham Young, the Sooners could pick up some big quality wins points as well.

The big thing I noticed so far is schedules and how they will stack up. Florida plays an average-weak schedule.

The toughest schedule belongs to No. 4 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have some interesting non-conference games to go with a tough ACC schedule. But the ACC always seems to struggle. If the Hokies can get past No. 6 Alabama in Atlanta this weekend, slot the Hokies as a dark horse to win the title. They have always ranked well in my standings because of a particularly strong defense. Just something to keep an eye on.

Otherwise, again, don't put too much stock in these rankings. I personally think Oklahoma, Florida and No. 5 Texas are the three top teams in the nation and are relatively interchangeable. I am looking forward to seeing how these teams play this weekend.

Here is the Top 15:

1. Oklahoma 33.5
2. Florida +2.5
2. USC +2.5
4. Virginia Tech +3.25
5. Texas +5
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma State
8. Georgia
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
11. LSU
12. Georgia Tech
13. California
14. Florida State
15. Penn State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Ole Miss, 17. North Carolina, 18. Nebraska, 19. Notre Dame, 20. Iowa, 21. Kansas, 22. Oregon State, 23. Brigham Young, 24. Utah, 25. TCU

Game of the Week: 4 Virginia Tech vs. 6 Alabama at Atlanta, Ga -- this is probably the most anticipated matchup of the week. The Tide's win over Clemson last year in the Georgia Dome jumpstarted a surprising run to the SEC Championship Game and nearly the BCS National Championship game. The Hokies should provide a much stiffer challenge than the Tigers did last year.