I will admit that the ranking system is not egalitarian at all. In fact, it is notoriously mean to the non-BCS schools -- and weak BCS conferences.
Case in point, Boise State. The Broncos are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the nation and have shown with that beating of No. 8 Oregon early in the season that they deserve to have a chance at the national championship if they go undefeated.
But Boise State has struggled in the rankings thanks to the weak schedule that comes with being a member of the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State has bounced all over the place going from 13 to 21 one week and then slowly climbing back up. Last week the Broncos cracked the top 10 going seventh.
Boise State had no drop this week with a No. 6 ranking in the polls. It appears that the Broncos can and should have a chance at playing for the national championship no matter how you break it down.
Going undefeated will not be enough for them though. That schedule is a big hurdle to overcome. They will likely have to be the only undefeated team remaining to reach the top two in the standings. And even then, I am skeptical they can make it.
The loss addition currently sits at a large 7.381 (meaning each loss counts for 7.381 points) and it is going to be about the same since No. 2 Florida's own weak schedule is keeping them from maintaining its top position from No. 1 Alabama.
If one of those two teams were to fall, the loss addition might increase. That would hurt a high-ranking one-loss team like No. 4 USC or No. 5 Virginia Tech. But if both Florida and Alabama fall and things get tight at the top, the Broncos could go tumbling.
A weak schedule certainly hurts a lot. All the Broncos can do is control what they can and let the chips fall.
1. Alabama 49.028
2. Florida +7.356
3. Texas +15.456
4. USC +17.031
5. Virginia Tech +23.154
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. South Florida
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. TCU
14. Iowa
15. Ohio State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Miami (Fl.); 18. Brigham Young; 19. Oklahoma State; 20. Auburn; 21. LSU; 22. West Virginia; 23. South Carolina; 24. Georgia Tech; 25. Missouri
Top Offense: 10 Kansas
Top Defense: 2 Florida
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BCS. Show all posts
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Welcome to Phil's BCS
Ever since I was young and really started getting into college football, one thing bugged the hell out of me. These rankings suck. They are based on the opinions of people who really don't watch enough college football and have no clue what's really going on.
Plus, they were not ranking my Florida Gators very highly. I was six or seven, what do you want from me.
So I learned how to use Microsoft XCel and experimented with other ways to rank college football teams.
So I hit my computer, still unhappy with where the BCS ranked my favorite team and resolved to create a new system for ranking the teams. This is not nearly as scientific or mathematical as those used in the BCS Computer Rankings (rankings that should be given much more weight in the actual BCS).
The system I devised was one based on the purest form of ranking: statistics. I started looking at six very key stats and broke them down simply. I ranked the teams based on rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, points scored, points allowed and rushing yard and passing yards allowed per game and compared them to other ranked teams.
I took this ranking and averaged it out for both an offensive and defensive ranking. This would give me a true look at how teams truly ranked.
Now obviously, stats cannot do it alone. Some teams run up the score (something I have always encouraged) and play weak opponents (something I do not encourage). So after adding some tweaks -- like using the polls available and actually used by the BCS or by respected media outlets and adding a strength of schedule and quality wins component -- I began ranking the college football teams.
To say the least, my ranking have done a pretty good job creating ideal national championship matchups and national champions. True, in the three years I have kept track of my previous rankings, it has not differed from the BCS. But throughout the middle of the season things change.
The purpose of this blog is twofold. First, it will allow me a place to publish these rankings and see how they progress and analyze them more. It will also allow me to take on ideas on how to improve them.
Second, it will also be a place to comment on the college football season. Something we all love doing.
I hope to be able to write more about the rankings in the coming days as well as release a belated Week 1 Rankings before Saturday's games.
Until then, so glad to see college football back. And it is going to be great to have the rankings back after a two year hiatus.
Plus, they were not ranking my Florida Gators very highly. I was six or seven, what do you want from me.
So I learned how to use Microsoft XCel and experimented with other ways to rank college football teams.
So I hit my computer, still unhappy with where the BCS ranked my favorite team and resolved to create a new system for ranking the teams. This is not nearly as scientific or mathematical as those used in the BCS Computer Rankings (rankings that should be given much more weight in the actual BCS).
The system I devised was one based on the purest form of ranking: statistics. I started looking at six very key stats and broke them down simply. I ranked the teams based on rushing yards per game, passing yards per game, points scored, points allowed and rushing yard and passing yards allowed per game and compared them to other ranked teams.
I took this ranking and averaged it out for both an offensive and defensive ranking. This would give me a true look at how teams truly ranked.
Now obviously, stats cannot do it alone. Some teams run up the score (something I have always encouraged) and play weak opponents (something I do not encourage). So after adding some tweaks -- like using the polls available and actually used by the BCS or by respected media outlets and adding a strength of schedule and quality wins component -- I began ranking the college football teams.
To say the least, my ranking have done a pretty good job creating ideal national championship matchups and national champions. True, in the three years I have kept track of my previous rankings, it has not differed from the BCS. But throughout the middle of the season things change.
The purpose of this blog is twofold. First, it will allow me a place to publish these rankings and see how they progress and analyze them more. It will also allow me to take on ideas on how to improve them.
Second, it will also be a place to comment on the college football season. Something we all love doing.
I hope to be able to write more about the rankings in the coming days as well as release a belated Week 1 Rankings before Saturday's games.
Until then, so glad to see college football back. And it is going to be great to have the rankings back after a two year hiatus.
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