2009 Week 8 Rankings: The Big Game Blowout

Because my rankings are so stats based, there is always one problem that seems to perplex me. You will notice that Texas has dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 even though they are still undefeated and new No. 3 USC has one loss.

This happens for a couple of reasons.

The first, well, Oklahoma is not that good anymore and Texas did not get the usual boost from a game against them that they would in the strength of schedule. The Longhorns got credited with less quality wins and that 1.5 point bump to their strength of schedule was certainly something out of their control.

Obviously they did not move around too much in the polls -- computer or human. So the only explanation is that big games hurt. You are playing a better team and you are going to have worse stats.

Take another curiosity, No. 2 Florida closed the gap on No. 1 Alabama by nearly two points this week even after narrowly escaping from Arkansas. The defensive rating took a dip, but was still strong. Why did the Gators do this? I would bet because they had an outlier in their passing performance that bumped them up the passing list.

As both teams go on with their schedule, I would assume things will settle down. I certainly believe Texas to be the third best team in the country as things stand -- although I think the closer margin is probably a better representation of how much better Alabama is than Florida.

But, again, playing against better opponents hurts the stat column and can cause some significant shifting in the stats.

This is not to encourage teams to play bad teams. The point of strength of schedule is to penalize teams that play poor teams -- play too many teams ranked in the 100s and you are adding 5-6 points to your score and a FCS team gets you 6.5 point to your overall total. I think strength of schedule needs to be a reduced factor, but without it I think a team like USC (who has a very strong schedule by the way and played a big game themselves against an unranked Notre Dame team last week) would probably be ranked even higher and these rankings would lose all legitimacy.

It will be interesting to see where Texas moves as things settle down this week.

Here is the top 15:

1. Alabama 53.22
2. Florida +5.719
3. USC +14.773
4. Texas +15.851
5. Cincinnati +22.015
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. TCU
9. Iowa
10. Penn State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgia Tech
15. Oklahoma State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. West Virginia; 17. South Florida; 18. Kansas; 19. Oklahoma; 20. Pittsburgh; 21. LSU; 22. Ohio State; 23. Texas Tech; 24. Nebraska; 25. Utah

2009 Week 7 Rankings: Revenge of the Mid-Majors!

I will admit that the ranking system is not egalitarian at all. In fact, it is notoriously mean to the non-BCS schools -- and weak BCS conferences.

Case in point, Boise State. The Broncos are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the nation and have shown with that beating of No. 8 Oregon early in the season that they deserve to have a chance at the national championship if they go undefeated.

But Boise State has struggled in the rankings thanks to the weak schedule that comes with being a member of the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State has bounced all over the place going from 13 to 21 one week and then slowly climbing back up. Last week the Broncos cracked the top 10 going seventh.

Boise State had no drop this week with a No. 6 ranking in the polls. It appears that the Broncos can and should have a chance at playing for the national championship no matter how you break it down.

Going undefeated will not be enough for them though. That schedule is a big hurdle to overcome. They will likely have to be the only undefeated team remaining to reach the top two in the standings. And even then, I am skeptical they can make it.

The loss addition currently sits at a large 7.381 (meaning each loss counts for 7.381 points) and it is going to be about the same since No. 2 Florida's own weak schedule is keeping them from maintaining its top position from No. 1 Alabama.

If one of those two teams were to fall, the loss addition might increase. That would hurt a high-ranking one-loss team like No. 4 USC or No. 5 Virginia Tech. But if both Florida and Alabama fall and things get tight at the top, the Broncos could go tumbling.

A weak schedule certainly hurts a lot. All the Broncos can do is control what they can and let the chips fall.

1. Alabama 49.028
2. Florida +7.356
3. Texas +15.456
4. USC +17.031
5. Virginia Tech +23.154
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. South Florida
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. TCU
14. Iowa
15. Ohio State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Miami (Fl.); 18. Brigham Young; 19. Oklahoma State; 20. Auburn; 21. LSU; 22. West Virginia; 23. South Carolina; 24. Georgia Tech; 25. Missouri

Top Offense: 10 Kansas
Top Defense: 2 Florida

2009 Week 6 Rankings: Settling In

You can tell teams are really starting to settle into the season as the top three is still the same as last week. It is late and I want to get this out so here are the rankings:

1. Alabama 49.067
2. Florida +7.381
3. Texas +13.36
4. USC +13.833
5. Kansas +32.307
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Ohio State
9. Auburn
10. LSU
11. TCU
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Florida
14. Nebraska
15. Iowa
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Oregon; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Penn State; 19. Missouri; 20. Mississippi; 21. Oklahoma State; 22. South Carolina; 23. Wisconsin; 24. Miami (Fl.); 25. Brigham Young

Top Offense: No. 3 Texas
Top Defense: No. 2 Florida
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 24 Miami
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 13 South Florida
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 USC
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 7 Boise State, Houston (ranked No. 34)

2009 Week 5 Rankings: Topsy-Turvy World

It has been very topsy turvy at the top this season. But Alabama and Florida remain the constants. These are very late and I need to get some sleep for my road trip to West Lafayette, Ind., for tomorrow's Northwestern game. So here are the top 15 and basic info:

1. Alabama 47.844
2. Florida +6.955
3. Texas +12.956
4. USC +14.178
5. Oklahoma +14.625
6. Ohio State
7. Kansas
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cincinnati
10. Nebraska
11. Boise State
12. Iowa
13. TCU
14. LSU
15. Auburn
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Oklahoma State; 18. Oregon; 19. California; 20. Mississippi; 21. Missouri; 22. Brigham Young; 23. Georgia; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia Tech