Sorry for being late...
1. Florida 52.808
2. Alabama +1.646
3. Texas +5.956
4. USC +10.774
5. TCU +21.73
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. Iowa
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. Oklahoma State
12. Georgia Tech
13. Miami
14. Oklahoma
15. Virginia Tech
Rest of the Top 25: 16. Pittsburgh; 17. Ohio State; 18. LSU; 19. Arizona; 20. West Virginia; 21. Brigham Young; 22. Houston; 23. Ole Miss; 24. Utah; 25. Cal
Monday, November 2, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
2009 Week 8 Rankings: The Big Game Blowout
Because my rankings are so stats based, there is always one problem that seems to perplex me. You will notice that Texas has dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 even though they are still undefeated and new No. 3 USC has one loss.
This happens for a couple of reasons.
The first, well, Oklahoma is not that good anymore and Texas did not get the usual boost from a game against them that they would in the strength of schedule. The Longhorns got credited with less quality wins and that 1.5 point bump to their strength of schedule was certainly something out of their control.
Obviously they did not move around too much in the polls -- computer or human. So the only explanation is that big games hurt. You are playing a better team and you are going to have worse stats.
Take another curiosity, No. 2 Florida closed the gap on No. 1 Alabama by nearly two points this week even after narrowly escaping from Arkansas. The defensive rating took a dip, but was still strong. Why did the Gators do this? I would bet because they had an outlier in their passing performance that bumped them up the passing list.
As both teams go on with their schedule, I would assume things will settle down. I certainly believe Texas to be the third best team in the country as things stand -- although I think the closer margin is probably a better representation of how much better Alabama is than Florida.
But, again, playing against better opponents hurts the stat column and can cause some significant shifting in the stats.
This is not to encourage teams to play bad teams. The point of strength of schedule is to penalize teams that play poor teams -- play too many teams ranked in the 100s and you are adding 5-6 points to your score and a FCS team gets you 6.5 point to your overall total. I think strength of schedule needs to be a reduced factor, but without it I think a team like USC (who has a very strong schedule by the way and played a big game themselves against an unranked Notre Dame team last week) would probably be ranked even higher and these rankings would lose all legitimacy.
It will be interesting to see where Texas moves as things settle down this week.
Here is the top 15:
1. Alabama 53.22
2. Florida +5.719
3. USC +14.773
4. Texas +15.851
5. Cincinnati +22.015
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. TCU
9. Iowa
10. Penn State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgia Tech
15. Oklahoma State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. West Virginia; 17. South Florida; 18. Kansas; 19. Oklahoma; 20. Pittsburgh; 21. LSU; 22. Ohio State; 23. Texas Tech; 24. Nebraska; 25. Utah
This happens for a couple of reasons.
The first, well, Oklahoma is not that good anymore and Texas did not get the usual boost from a game against them that they would in the strength of schedule. The Longhorns got credited with less quality wins and that 1.5 point bump to their strength of schedule was certainly something out of their control.
Obviously they did not move around too much in the polls -- computer or human. So the only explanation is that big games hurt. You are playing a better team and you are going to have worse stats.
Take another curiosity, No. 2 Florida closed the gap on No. 1 Alabama by nearly two points this week even after narrowly escaping from Arkansas. The defensive rating took a dip, but was still strong. Why did the Gators do this? I would bet because they had an outlier in their passing performance that bumped them up the passing list.
As both teams go on with their schedule, I would assume things will settle down. I certainly believe Texas to be the third best team in the country as things stand -- although I think the closer margin is probably a better representation of how much better Alabama is than Florida.
But, again, playing against better opponents hurts the stat column and can cause some significant shifting in the stats.
This is not to encourage teams to play bad teams. The point of strength of schedule is to penalize teams that play poor teams -- play too many teams ranked in the 100s and you are adding 5-6 points to your score and a FCS team gets you 6.5 point to your overall total. I think strength of schedule needs to be a reduced factor, but without it I think a team like USC (who has a very strong schedule by the way and played a big game themselves against an unranked Notre Dame team last week) would probably be ranked even higher and these rankings would lose all legitimacy.
It will be interesting to see where Texas moves as things settle down this week.
Here is the top 15:
1. Alabama 53.22
2. Florida +5.719
3. USC +14.773
4. Texas +15.851
5. Cincinnati +22.015
6. Boise State
7. Oregon
8. TCU
9. Iowa
10. Penn State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. Brigham Young
14. Georgia Tech
15. Oklahoma State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. West Virginia; 17. South Florida; 18. Kansas; 19. Oklahoma; 20. Pittsburgh; 21. LSU; 22. Ohio State; 23. Texas Tech; 24. Nebraska; 25. Utah
Saturday, October 17, 2009
2009 Week 7 Rankings: Revenge of the Mid-Majors!
I will admit that the ranking system is not egalitarian at all. In fact, it is notoriously mean to the non-BCS schools -- and weak BCS conferences.
Case in point, Boise State. The Broncos are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the nation and have shown with that beating of No. 8 Oregon early in the season that they deserve to have a chance at the national championship if they go undefeated.
But Boise State has struggled in the rankings thanks to the weak schedule that comes with being a member of the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State has bounced all over the place going from 13 to 21 one week and then slowly climbing back up. Last week the Broncos cracked the top 10 going seventh.
Boise State had no drop this week with a No. 6 ranking in the polls. It appears that the Broncos can and should have a chance at playing for the national championship no matter how you break it down.
Going undefeated will not be enough for them though. That schedule is a big hurdle to overcome. They will likely have to be the only undefeated team remaining to reach the top two in the standings. And even then, I am skeptical they can make it.
The loss addition currently sits at a large 7.381 (meaning each loss counts for 7.381 points) and it is going to be about the same since No. 2 Florida's own weak schedule is keeping them from maintaining its top position from No. 1 Alabama.
If one of those two teams were to fall, the loss addition might increase. That would hurt a high-ranking one-loss team like No. 4 USC or No. 5 Virginia Tech. But if both Florida and Alabama fall and things get tight at the top, the Broncos could go tumbling.
A weak schedule certainly hurts a lot. All the Broncos can do is control what they can and let the chips fall.
1. Alabama 49.028
2. Florida +7.356
3. Texas +15.456
4. USC +17.031
5. Virginia Tech +23.154
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. South Florida
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. TCU
14. Iowa
15. Ohio State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Miami (Fl.); 18. Brigham Young; 19. Oklahoma State; 20. Auburn; 21. LSU; 22. West Virginia; 23. South Carolina; 24. Georgia Tech; 25. Missouri
Top Offense: 10 Kansas
Top Defense: 2 Florida
Case in point, Boise State. The Broncos are undoubtedly one of the top teams in the nation and have shown with that beating of No. 8 Oregon early in the season that they deserve to have a chance at the national championship if they go undefeated.
But Boise State has struggled in the rankings thanks to the weak schedule that comes with being a member of the Western Athletic Conference. Boise State has bounced all over the place going from 13 to 21 one week and then slowly climbing back up. Last week the Broncos cracked the top 10 going seventh.
Boise State had no drop this week with a No. 6 ranking in the polls. It appears that the Broncos can and should have a chance at playing for the national championship no matter how you break it down.
Going undefeated will not be enough for them though. That schedule is a big hurdle to overcome. They will likely have to be the only undefeated team remaining to reach the top two in the standings. And even then, I am skeptical they can make it.
The loss addition currently sits at a large 7.381 (meaning each loss counts for 7.381 points) and it is going to be about the same since No. 2 Florida's own weak schedule is keeping them from maintaining its top position from No. 1 Alabama.
If one of those two teams were to fall, the loss addition might increase. That would hurt a high-ranking one-loss team like No. 4 USC or No. 5 Virginia Tech. But if both Florida and Alabama fall and things get tight at the top, the Broncos could go tumbling.
A weak schedule certainly hurts a lot. All the Broncos can do is control what they can and let the chips fall.
1. Alabama 49.028
2. Florida +7.356
3. Texas +15.456
4. USC +17.031
5. Virginia Tech +23.154
6. Boise State
7. Cincinnati
8. Oregon
9. South Florida
10. Kansas
11. Oklahoma
12. Nebraska
13. TCU
14. Iowa
15. Ohio State
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Miami (Fl.); 18. Brigham Young; 19. Oklahoma State; 20. Auburn; 21. LSU; 22. West Virginia; 23. South Carolina; 24. Georgia Tech; 25. Missouri
Top Offense: 10 Kansas
Top Defense: 2 Florida
Saturday, October 10, 2009
2009 Week 6 Rankings: Settling In
You can tell teams are really starting to settle into the season as the top three is still the same as last week. It is late and I want to get this out so here are the rankings:
1. Alabama 49.067
2. Florida +7.381
3. Texas +13.36
4. USC +13.833
5. Kansas +32.307
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Ohio State
9. Auburn
10. LSU
11. TCU
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Florida
14. Nebraska
15. Iowa
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Oregon; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Penn State; 19. Missouri; 20. Mississippi; 21. Oklahoma State; 22. South Carolina; 23. Wisconsin; 24. Miami (Fl.); 25. Brigham Young
Top Offense: No. 3 Texas
Top Defense: No. 2 Florida
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 24 Miami
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 13 South Florida
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 USC
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 7 Boise State, Houston (ranked No. 34)
1. Alabama 49.067
2. Florida +7.381
3. Texas +13.36
4. USC +13.833
5. Kansas +32.307
6. Cincinnati
7. Boise State
8. Ohio State
9. Auburn
10. LSU
11. TCU
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Florida
14. Nebraska
15. Iowa
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Oregon; 17. Oklahoma; 18. Penn State; 19. Missouri; 20. Mississippi; 21. Oklahoma State; 22. South Carolina; 23. Wisconsin; 24. Miami (Fl.); 25. Brigham Young
Top Offense: No. 3 Texas
Top Defense: No. 2 Florida
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 24 Miami
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 13 South Florida
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 USC
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 7 Boise State, Houston (ranked No. 34)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
2009 Week 5 Rankings: Topsy-Turvy World
It has been very topsy turvy at the top this season. But Alabama and Florida remain the constants. These are very late and I need to get some sleep for my road trip to West Lafayette, Ind., for tomorrow's Northwestern game. So here are the top 15 and basic info:
1. Alabama 47.844
2. Florida +6.955
3. Texas +12.956
4. USC +14.178
5. Oklahoma +14.625
6. Ohio State
7. Kansas
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cincinnati
10. Nebraska
11. Boise State
12. Iowa
13. TCU
14. LSU
15. Auburn
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Oklahoma State; 18. Oregon; 19. California; 20. Mississippi; 21. Missouri; 22. Brigham Young; 23. Georgia; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia Tech
1. Alabama 47.844
2. Florida +6.955
3. Texas +12.956
4. USC +14.178
5. Oklahoma +14.625
6. Ohio State
7. Kansas
8. Virginia Tech
9. Cincinnati
10. Nebraska
11. Boise State
12. Iowa
13. TCU
14. LSU
15. Auburn
The rest of the Top 25: 16. Penn State; 17. Oklahoma State; 18. Oregon; 19. California; 20. Mississippi; 21. Missouri; 22. Brigham Young; 23. Georgia; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia Tech
Saturday, September 26, 2009
2009 Week 4 Rankings: A Win is No Guarantee
I am sure a lot of people are expecting Florida to remain the top team after a win against Tennessee. That is usually how polls work. But the No. 2 Gators did not exactly dominate the Volunteers last week at Florida Field.
The great thing I love about the way my rankings work is that winning is a necessity, but winning in a dominating fashion is even more of a necessity. This does not mean schedule weak, as Florida is learning in its short tumble. But no team can have an off week, like Tim Tebow and the Gators had last week, and expect to hold onto their position.
Instead the most consistent teams who play the tougher schedules rise to the top. This week that top team is No. 1 Alabama.
I have been waiting for the Crimson Tide to get to the top spot after being ranked No. 4 last week. I absolutely love this team -- see my thoughts from Week 1 in their thrashing of the No. 18 Hokies in Atlanta. They play defense and run the ball well. They are, to my eye, the best team in the country right now. Clearly Florida and No. 5 Texas are riding the laurels of last season's success.
There are certainly going to be some surprises in this week's rankings -- as No. 4 Oklahoma has leap-frogged up the polls despite losing a game, something that I would consider more of a mathematical fluke than anything else -- but I would expect things to settle as the week moves on.
Here is this week's top 15:
1. Alabama 53.279
2. Florida +0.8
3. California +14.83
4. Oklahoma +15.719
5. Texas +21.004
6. USC
7. Mississippi (stats recorded before Thursday night's loss)
8. Kansas
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. TCU
14. Auburn
15. Missouri
The rest of the Top 25: 16. North Carolina; 17. Ohio State; 18. Virginia Tech; 19. Nebraska; 20. Florida State; 21. Boise State; 22. Michigan; 23. Brigham Young; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia
Top Offense: No. 2 Florida, Texas A&M (ranked 29th in standings)
Top Defense: No. 10 Penn State
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 12 Miami
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 Oklahoma
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 8 Kansas
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 21 Boise State
Game of the Week: 12 Miami (Fl.) vs. 18 Virginia Tech- the Hurricanes ridiculous start continues as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies. The history of this rivalry in the 2000s is well documented as Virginia Tech nearly ruined a couple Miami national championship runs. It is pretty safe to say that this game is very much in the same vein the way the Hurricanes are playing (at least until Miami hosts Oklahoma next week). This should be a very good game and could very well decide which team takes control of the ACC this year. The Hokies and Hurricanes do not rank fantastically in either offense or defense in the ratings, but we all know they have a solid defense. This game will come down to the quarterbacks and who can execute. The scary part is, both have proven they can perform under pressure in big games this season.
The great thing I love about the way my rankings work is that winning is a necessity, but winning in a dominating fashion is even more of a necessity. This does not mean schedule weak, as Florida is learning in its short tumble. But no team can have an off week, like Tim Tebow and the Gators had last week, and expect to hold onto their position.
Instead the most consistent teams who play the tougher schedules rise to the top. This week that top team is No. 1 Alabama.
I have been waiting for the Crimson Tide to get to the top spot after being ranked No. 4 last week. I absolutely love this team -- see my thoughts from Week 1 in their thrashing of the No. 18 Hokies in Atlanta. They play defense and run the ball well. They are, to my eye, the best team in the country right now. Clearly Florida and No. 5 Texas are riding the laurels of last season's success.
There are certainly going to be some surprises in this week's rankings -- as No. 4 Oklahoma has leap-frogged up the polls despite losing a game, something that I would consider more of a mathematical fluke than anything else -- but I would expect things to settle as the week moves on.
Here is this week's top 15:
1. Alabama 53.279
2. Florida +0.8
3. California +14.83
4. Oklahoma +15.719
5. Texas +21.004
6. USC
7. Mississippi (stats recorded before Thursday night's loss)
8. Kansas
9. Cincinnati
10. Penn State
11. LSU
12. Miami (Fl.)
13. TCU
14. Auburn
15. Missouri
The rest of the Top 25: 16. North Carolina; 17. Ohio State; 18. Virginia Tech; 19. Nebraska; 20. Florida State; 21. Boise State; 22. Michigan; 23. Brigham Young; 24. Houston; 25. Georgia
Top Offense: No. 2 Florida, Texas A&M (ranked 29th in standings)
Top Defense: No. 10 Penn State
Toughest Schedule To-Date: No. 12 Miami
Toughest Schedule Remaining: No. 4 Oklahoma
Easiest Schedule To-Date: No. 8 Kansas
Easiest Schedule Remaining: No. 21 Boise State
Game of the Week: 12 Miami (Fl.) vs. 18 Virginia Tech- the Hurricanes ridiculous start continues as the Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies. The history of this rivalry in the 2000s is well documented as Virginia Tech nearly ruined a couple Miami national championship runs. It is pretty safe to say that this game is very much in the same vein the way the Hurricanes are playing (at least until Miami hosts Oklahoma next week). This should be a very good game and could very well decide which team takes control of the ACC this year. The Hokies and Hurricanes do not rank fantastically in either offense or defense in the ratings, but we all know they have a solid defense. This game will come down to the quarterbacks and who can execute. The scary part is, both have proven they can perform under pressure in big games this season.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Thoughts From Week 3 2009
No. 20 Georgia Tech vs. Miami (Fl.): Tyrone Nesbitt's drop back really bothers me and it is going to hurt this team, if it did not already in this game, Nesbitt is right-handed but he drops back left-handed and turns to throw, he has a powerful arm, but this is a concerning hitch for the Yellow Jackets... because Georgia Tech is so dependent on the triple option, the team cannot fall behind like it did tonight, the passing game is just not up to snuff... the Hurricanes are athletic and the pass defense definitely improved from the game against the Seminoles... Jacory Harris had his doubters entering the season, I think he silenced them... the Hurricanes gauntlet start does not let up as the Sooners travel to Land Shark Stadium next week and the Hokies after that, woo-hoo.
No. 6 California at Minnesota: the Golden Bears are making quite a lot of mistakes that have given the Gophers a chance at this thing from fumbles to muffed punts to silly penalties... the defense is struggling to contain the tandem of Adam Weber and Erick Decker, but they are very physical nonetheless... Jahvid Best is also quite physical and also quite good... I have to ask this, if Cal is having so much problems containing just one good wide receiver -- and granted Decker is one of the top receivers in the nation -- what are they going to do with the multiple weapons that a team like USC or Oregon has?
Tennessee vs. No. 1 Florida: there was a reason the Volunteers were ranked No. 8 last week, they have a really athletic defense and it is getting a good push on the Gators' offensive line, that has really disrupted everything they have wanted to do... disrupting Florida even more, Tennessee's strong running game, I definitely did not see that coming as the offensive line is pushing around Florida's defense... but having said all that, Tennessee needs to quit being afraid of what Jonathan Crompton can do it held the team back against UCLA and it is holding the team back in the Swamp... Florida needs to find a way to get their receivers involved, because they are not going to do it themselves, that is the one weakness for the Gators and the Volunteers did a good job forcing Tebow to make plays to them most of the day... having said that, the backs for the Gators are about as good as they come, so fast... and Tim Tebow had a Heisman play on a 3rd and 4 in the third quarter with the game still tight, I was yelling for him to throw the ball away and he somehow got a first down.
No. 6 California at Minnesota: the Golden Bears are making quite a lot of mistakes that have given the Gophers a chance at this thing from fumbles to muffed punts to silly penalties... the defense is struggling to contain the tandem of Adam Weber and Erick Decker, but they are very physical nonetheless... Jahvid Best is also quite physical and also quite good... I have to ask this, if Cal is having so much problems containing just one good wide receiver -- and granted Decker is one of the top receivers in the nation -- what are they going to do with the multiple weapons that a team like USC or Oregon has?
Tennessee vs. No. 1 Florida: there was a reason the Volunteers were ranked No. 8 last week, they have a really athletic defense and it is getting a good push on the Gators' offensive line, that has really disrupted everything they have wanted to do... disrupting Florida even more, Tennessee's strong running game, I definitely did not see that coming as the offensive line is pushing around Florida's defense... but having said all that, Tennessee needs to quit being afraid of what Jonathan Crompton can do it held the team back against UCLA and it is holding the team back in the Swamp... Florida needs to find a way to get their receivers involved, because they are not going to do it themselves, that is the one weakness for the Gators and the Volunteers did a good job forcing Tebow to make plays to them most of the day... having said that, the backs for the Gators are about as good as they come, so fast... and Tim Tebow had a Heisman play on a 3rd and 4 in the third quarter with the game still tight, I was yelling for him to throw the ball away and he somehow got a first down.
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